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: R$ [. n3 r% e# T- _# n, _加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为! a1 U8 w- W9 ]! ^- d' [+ L7 l
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
6 E4 q- a& j. u( A$ S衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。) }' A9 N: f& i) u/ p/ d" a: w
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.04 z: t/ K6 ?% n* z* h
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。8 }. P8 ?+ ^/ X6 E, Q& M% N
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：3 V! K2 A! _* h% G. _ \, V+ @6 q
2024年4月第四次减半8 C$ d( N" Z, P0 Z+ G9 B
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
- I/ `$ P0 _ ^+ y可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)' ~. ^& H2 ]! Q* A- I& [( x
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
9 A, W& Q+ w/ c& k二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
0 K5 z. E, k. B( T* j$ gfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
C; x4 P) T; V; U. P8 i# o1 G" V0 MPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
: l8 v. H4 t% R4 M: H3 {$ N诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
4 a& W" n; Y% ~三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
# F2 a& F2 r, }' \3 S: m除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统 o! o: C" }- { g4 d) B; `) [
金融(TradFi)产品。; b/ W- l$ C3 M# @5 \1 F5 D
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
- d3 V/ N+ j0 X* h. h, D- Y* N链桥」的项目。
5 b0 X: n& k6 k5 R0 ^四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
& F6 O6 S6 K- S模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
' `9 P' e0 h( Z" P/ ]/ [; q A8 h+ y等。% S7 y7 @* E! O8 ?% T: q
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
; g" b' A! ^: r% d, H5 C4 J0 U$ ]在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。# \( `6 S7 }3 y$ d6 S; b) P- p' ]8 O
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN/ N/ @9 L; y9 @/ U
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位% a0 X/ ^. P0 Q: _- B; I
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
3 A# ~3 W$ _+ l" y7 bPantera点名了几个项目：# l8 i. ~, f' b* O: }
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
! ~, i$ N4 Y5 B3 j" t6 zBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
0 L+ y0 z. Q) T) K2 n GModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品' ^+ A: R' p C: n) x3 | E, }- j
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
: v8 ]; [! e: P4 r- L3 oRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游! J9 J3 B" P8 |' z' }
六、小型公链需专注特定应用5 ^" L2 c$ h$ X6 Y& S& \
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚2 t2 A+ w) @% Z" y2 M2 k3 z
至能直接与L2竞争。
% {( e) b! [1 G, l也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
* B6 ?/ \) x t C& m! c. R5 z! O9 K" YPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地" Q" I2 _: K% F6 \
成为「应用链」。
4 V, `8 y5 F/ s" K9 [事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。9 x x# y( d$ g& j
5 U6 d2 B3 A; n8 j) y
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