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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。! R3 l7 c, h8 Z! w# O5 p
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。7 o9 W- g" j2 J' `+ s, t, y
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市- c2 a; n$ s8 }: h. O* Z9 g' ?
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。4 c9 I1 R; b, ~: I' A: z) U. H
! O2 l. r) f2 k2 `# @来源：Alphractal- e% R; {$ a2 A( g1 B
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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" X- h) v, e6 y# d/ U" ?( O( d尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。# c6 z. {: Z! s7 {# Y
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事情变得有趣了
! T* `/ b9 h9 S T p4 S- d( UBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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$ V+ D& k& ^( V5 |/ g, W5 N8 s7 C来源：X
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! g# y0 ^' U) v2 [! P根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。" }3 C2 E) W' E
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。6 i8 X: s& x+ \6 D6 v$ n
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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) J \9 y9 E5 y8 X* b( j; a随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力7 G2 z: i: T O- h' z* D5 a5 A
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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! j! `9 A8 o& c来源：TradingView
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+ y, P9 I: l, L0 ]/ ?日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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0 L! O& s2 l Y5 t: ~然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。4 n5 ]# @3 R0 W: r* V
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。. x+ q1 i' l3 a% ]3 b5 z: [6 Y- r
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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