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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。% s- ]/ e% E# e2 K1 b V
" ^0 A, R$ O: D! U/ A8 n但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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0 s4 B. \4 ]4 U0 k: G开局艰难，但历史看好牛市' `3 g! b4 L2 [- N7 H3 K6 x' T8 \
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。 ~9 w) E! l, o. S) s% g. i' b
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来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。. W1 c3 J1 L; W+ y$ L. F
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。9 F3 z( ^7 Z! U
" M$ J; E# k% v& |事情变得有趣了
' @* |" |! r& j& ]5 s- |& eBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。4 m$ Z r* j# A' B) |4 l% Z5 Z
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来源：X
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& ?! f7 y5 X- }$ C4 k$ U" y根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。5 e) C- a3 I, p; p' E2 W
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力1 y; b$ Y2 x! t0 ~. y
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。6 }5 {( ] x5 {' }
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来源：TradingView
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# p8 ^$ x3 P! q日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。+ E7 p. ~5 T+ F* s
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。 W. B. n! u% ?8 v
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。; K4 b S- E* D% W$ Z) e5 o
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