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[真人] 一副牌盈利25万+美金,正能量?
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fa568 发表于 2013-12-8 16:54
2 X  c8 [" j* ?! X9 V+ Z/ Q- G% [楼主回来啦,好厉害啊,我一直都会支持你的,加油哦

# `3 Y$ X& x, l9 W以下是你要的东西,你自己找个翻译软件看下吧。作者是美国知名的数学家,他的简历我也附给你,方便你去网上查询核实。文中提到的各种表格和计算结果,我会回头发给你。# ?2 B2 T0 G4 m( Q
Eliot Jacobson received his Ph.D. in Mathematics from theUniversity of Arizona in 1983. Eliot was Professor of Mathematics at OhioUniversity from 1983 to 1998, where he was undergraduate chair from 1990 to1994. He was Visiting Associate Professor and Lecturer in the Department ofComputer Science at the University of California, Santa Barbara from 1998 to2009. Eliot has over twenty research publications in mathematics appearing inmajor international journals. In 2009, Eliot retired from academia.

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The DragonSide Bet for Baccarat is simple to describe. This side bet pays 40-to-1if the dealer three-card total of 7 beats the player, otherwise the bet loses.Analysis of the wager consists of a straight forward cycle through all possiblehands. Table 1 gives the analysis for eight decks, with the house edge of7.611% appearing in the lower right cell.
Ifirst considered if the Dragon Side Bet was susceptible to a card counting methodologyseveral months back. Intuitively, it seemed as though the wager was moreprobable to hit if there was an excess of 7 and 10 valued cards in the deck. Inthis case, the dealer would be more likely to draw 10-10 and hit to a 10-10-7 =7. Later, as I read several Internet discussion boards, it became clear thatothers thought as I did. The conclusions were that if there was anyvulnerability at all, it would come when 7and 10 were in excess in theremainder of the shoe. It turns out this is not the case. The Dragon Side Betis vulnerable to a card counting methodology, but the answer is surprising.
The key is that in order for the player to win the Dragon bet, the dealerhas to draw a third card. This requirement trumps everything else. The cardsthat keep the dealer from drawing that third card most often are the 8 and the9. As these cards are removed from the shoe, the edge moves quickly towards thecounter favor. An excess of smaller cards is also helpful. The cards 1-7 areeach cards that can move the dealer final total to 7 if he draws. Determiningwhich of these low cards result in a final total of 7 most often is the key.
The methodology used in this study is familiar. The overall house edge forthe game dealt from eight decks is 7.611%. By removing each card in turn froman eight-deck shoe, its effect on the house edge can be determined. This allowscard counting systems to be developed. After arriving at candidate systems,computer simulations are run to see if these systems can generate an edge inpractice. If there is an edge, the question then becomes if this is significantenough to become an opportunity for the advantage player.
Table 2 shows the number of winning and losing hands that result fromremoving one card from an eight-deck shoe, along with the house edge afterremoving that card.
Table 2allows us to compute the effect on the house edge for the Dragon bet byremoving each card. Table 3 gives these results. The middle column (EOR) showsthe change in house edge when the indicated card is removed. The final column(EOR x 1000) indicates potential card-counting tags to use in an optimal system
Table3 indicates the extreme importance of ridding the shoe of 8 and 9. Also, the 7is the most important card, as expected, to remain in the shoe. The other cardsdiminish in value as their pips go down, presumably because they are used infewer and fewer situations to draw to a dealer total of 7. Working againstintuition, the counter situation improves as zero-valued cards are removed fromthe deck.
Looking at the values in the last column of Table 3, and adjustingslightly to make it balanced, we get card counting system 1� with tags (0.5,-0.9, -1.1, -2.7, -2.7, -3.3, -3.6, 5.4, 4.8, 0.9). The reader will most likelyconsider it daunting to use system 1 in practice. However, as a baselinecounting system, it is worthwhile to see how it performs. In an effort tosimplify this unwieldy system as much as possible, I also considered the cardcounting system with tags (0, 0, 0, -1, -1, -1, -1, 2, 2, 0). I refer to thisas system 2.� This latter system is easily implemented by a counter of averageskill level.
To gauge the effectiveness of each, I wrote a computer program to simulateusing these two systems in live play. The game I simulated has the followingshuffling and cut card rules:
·        The game is dealt from a shoe with 8 decks.
·        At the start of each shoe, a card is burned. Based on thevalue of the burn card, an additional number of cards are burned, equal to thevalue of the card.
·        The cut card is placed 14 cards from the end of the shoe.
·        After the cut card is dealt, one more round is dealtbefore shuffling.
Table 4 gives the results of a simulation of two hundred million(200,000,000) shoes.
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话说常人是不赌为赢,楼主是不赢不赌,确实很佩服,口水都流了一地。
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20#
非常感谢你的回复,谢谢!# U* d; s8 n/ ]% J5 D% F, Z
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楼主第二的方法正是我现在用着的,现在想输都有点难了哈哈:D
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hopewang626 发表于 2013-12-8 18:23& N9 e+ Y+ a) D0 R
以下是你要的东西,你自己找个翻译软件看下吧。作者是美国知名的数学家,他的简历我也附给你,方便你去网 ...
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也发我一份,我好好研究看看。。。
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jack5678 发表于 2013-12-8 19:121 C) l1 o. v: ~3 }
也发我一份,我好好研究看看。。。
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对概率感兴趣呀,留道题给你,书上原题。别着急去找答案,重要是你自己要想通,要理解。然后告诉我答案,你会了我就再出下1题,我想10多道题后,你就能常胜百家樂了。+ e- z+ |5 p. T2 I4 F! ?! ?- e+ L
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问:如果扔3个硬币,结果3个硬币都是正面或者都是反面的概率是多少?
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答:3个硬币中,至少有2个硬币的结果是一样,要不正面,要不反面。而第3个硬币出现正面或者反面的概率是一样的,所以它有50%的机会和另外2个硬币结果相同,也有50%的机会和另外2          个硬币不同,所以3个硬币都正面和都反面的机会是50%。/ Q: F) {' k: ]- i9 _# W2 o

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先告诉你这个答案是错的,请问错在哪里?正确的算法应该怎么算。
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hopewang626 发表于 2013-12-8 18:04
9 n! {3 ?- Z$ \$ `; i3 \, X哥们你错了,他最擅长的是lun盘。。。。。。他是概率派的。
' V/ G% ^# t0 o+ ?5 [% z# \  x' \21点我们天策圈子里,最出名的是戴子郎,他 ...
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智博玩lun盘?他写的打败DC,都无说过玩lun盘。我还以为他玩21点
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hopewang626 发表于 2013-12-8 19:30
+ R8 S! i; [4 K: Q$ |对概率感兴趣呀,留道题给你,书上原题。别着急去找答案,重要是你自己要想通,要理解。然后告诉我答案, ...

) E3 ?1 c& A! ?; i  }正1/2*1/2*1/2+反1/2*1/2*1/2=1/4
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hopewang626 发表于 2013-12-8 19:30
: k6 |8 G2 _" J  ]5 P对概率感兴趣呀,留道题给你,书上原题。别着急去找答案,重要是你自己要想通,要理解。然后告诉我答案, ...
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两正一反的概率是3/8
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博要得法 发表于 2013-12-8 19:36
5 R" X$ k! ]# n7 Z) X正1/2*1/2*1/2+反1/2*1/2*1/2=1/4
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哥们高见。可是还有个小问题没回答呢,文中那种算法错在哪里?这个比我们得出的答案更重要哦。。。。。。8 X+ M: j( b# d. |* d
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28#
楼主你第一次提示我5050时,我刚开始百思不得其解,后来想到了概率在百家樂中一定有什么关系。可惜我一点不懂概率,所以赢了又输,心态还要在加强。这条路很漫长,用概率玩百家樂就已经是用科学知识博彩了,是更高的理性博彩境界。感谢楼主发的美国DC路单和表格,某数学家的介绍。英文看不懂,找个软件试试能不能翻译过来。!恭喜楼主赢了25万美金!换成人民币是100多万了。
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hopewang626 发表于 2013-12-8 18:23
+ K# y! _3 ?# r* {8 p6 J' [; d以下是你要的东西,你自己找个翻译软件看下吧。作者是美国知名的数学家,他的简历我也附给你,方便你去网 ...

  u( L& @" u; U& e: O可以顺带发一份给小弟吗:)
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转一位高人言论,有心人共勉之。。。。。。小弟未曾与他相识,谋面,也不知道他身在何处,只把他摆在心中高高仰望,默默祝福!
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世界上任何结论都是在一定条件下得到的,没有一个真理是适合在任何所有的场合,这就是真理的相对性。p'a5BY6Wqdeep
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“賭場永遠是正收益这一点是公认的”这个结论也是在特定情况下的结论: p Q0JS[32{ eu
% W3 l2 p" X! y) b" d, n1. 99.99%的赌客;
9 A; f( U1 H( i3 Y1 I" b& T2. 用一维线性思维模式思考的方式;H        iKh@ nk*@1 j3 z# p, t: N) k: ?, O2 v
3. 用因果事件来看待百家樂;:x;a*GY9u1v`l        [' W! c7 R2 F8 C' b+ `% Y1 q% A
4. 简单的无极限的大数法则运用。#I5Y ~k2t:Ax9I0 w) _5 {7 M; n8 }* w6 G
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在下面的条件下,“賭場永遠是正收益这一点是公认的”这个结论就变得不正确了: Rn OvIJHF.Qh;Wc. u; |4 A2 f2 I7 z6 \; |/ l
1. 0.01%的概率派高手;czI8w*jx
' `) n, X; C& ]0 ]# N* W$ o2. 二维、三维甚至是四维的欧几里德空间思考的方式; { i&Q/s2Oz%};p
- x- K& e) d% o+ i% _8 l9 a6 ~4 `3. 用概率事件来看待百家樂;$Fm7g:||{! m0 {: M" D: b) J/ D, A5 @4 b8 x
4. 有限的振幅和图形的正态分布概率、各种波动的概率差异的运用。2xZ0ft7K) a! k7 R6 i* L3 t2 s

1 m+ t. w' j) m) U各人所处的条件基本上可以判断出各人对于“賭場永遠是正收益这一点是公认的”这个结论的认同程度。
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31#
hopewang626 发表于 2013-12-8 19:30
2 c' u" Q5 v  f0 P2 _% b' }对概率感兴趣呀,留道题给你,书上原题。别着急去找答案,重要是你自己要想通,要理解。然后告诉我答案, ...

7 C7 M) `/ l+ W- ]8 ?' s误区是不是在最后一句??
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zhaowang01 发表于 2013-12-8 20:10
& X; v, A5 p/ r9 |. H: Y- y楼主你第一次提示我5050时,我刚开始百思不得其解,后来想到了概率在百家樂中一定有什么关系。可惜我一点不 ...
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4个人分,不多不多。洗洗睡了,安了。
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55235 发表于 2013-12-8 20:29
& R+ R) L- ^" Y4 A* n( ?$ p. Q9 b误区是不是在最后一句??

! w: B9 Z! t! d有人答出后,我自然会继续。还是那句话,为什么错,比我们得到结果更重要。7 C0 z) h0 P8 q3 C
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34#
hopewang626 发表于 2013-12-8 19:30. G1 Z- i" p5 k% F* l/ [( Z
对概率感兴趣呀,留道题给你,书上原题。别着急去找答案,重要是你自己要想通,要理解。然后告诉我答案, ...

; T. z( T" V/ A# g前两 个硬币在特定情况下如:前两个都是正或都是反的话出出相同的是各占50。不是的话只占1/8几率! G$ ?6 V2 o9 W. }
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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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