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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
& {7 j; T5 Q( j+ M5 @4 t* G, Y: `* C& B k# L+ N+ _
. f& T: Q4 R9 `/ V2 i0 h西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率% e! ~7 L" ^+ M# f- R- a
% r. t1 Y! J. ]0 j以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:, Q* g( O: u; a2 R# M; Q
q/ F0 `& ~& }& ~& Z皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
. T' k1 I) W7 h2 }
/ l, z2 Q- s/ L0 I( s8 h很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)! S& N( f1 c( X, l4 g- r
8 t4 T7 H3 S$ X# V5 A7 Z* z
8 O0 Z6 R- ?/ A) c5 M5 m
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?1 |& j" l; c0 s, H0 n
3 h9 j6 y3 T8 p* f. F: T
& q! ?* O! l3 K. n
盈利可能性" u: i1 Y% i# V; G, u
! k8 a5 t" v9 k. X* k7 D对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。6 `% U; Y7 x# p, T% D- e7 R
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增值& G D$ D8 M* c4 N
, K5 A: ^, ^. v0 m* Q' L许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。" H3 T- w* K, M; B. i
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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8 c! _& S" E# `$ b" j- y! ca) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 1 b B6 D! }8 k/ x8 D
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么/ j8 d; p5 m1 P. b" L& z
9 B+ E3 v7 v. A$ p: l X! J7 _40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
, r7 ]3 y4 u* A d0 E; G& p: B* w60%的机会你会一无所有1 e' ?0 a/ H5 Q4 k: b3 z2 x- N
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 3 ^' \% R0 p9 e9 z# a1 g5 R: @
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。* A2 h* ]8 e) {* ?, }* L. t1 G
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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; j4 R2 E- W/ f7 \+ a% K+ Z+ xA=博彩资金
+ k' v4 W$ f: D* r( O% y/ F7 }$ vP=获胜机会* ~' D& z% n0 o! j
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)8 f: G( O: V" V" C
9 k X! l+ x( {! d. H首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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' B6 F9 i( J3 B6 i1 G) D好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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' Y/ h- P6 P: I8 K1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5): ?9 o, l6 |" a
+ j9 L8 m2 p8 B/ ]' }: w9 p2 G
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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) A4 J( B& Q! Y" J8 ^) |, q) ~A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢8 F1 W' d; m2 B/ Q J: W* \9 A+ ^& P
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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- t" |9 w" Z# d( G. k/ P/ WA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)+ f( e8 Z$ A5 e6 j1 q) |6 ~
. Z! Q! [2 B9 ~, _/ ?+ @ xA=0.1
; [& ^0 c* H2 g# a
8 _7 o- D! v& U2 }结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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* H* P1 Z; X1 t- L2 Z8 z. u3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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0 _; ~, b9 J# O6 S7 R" _& I5 sA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)7 k0 E6 m& e! n. H l9 @% b+ L: s
$ ~0 N& y: ?, TA= -0.2
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$ d8 t9 H1 ~, M0 @% z' ?结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
$ E1 e% D# h8 {$ x8 e0 [
3 n- Y) v& E" | ]) J+ A/ d第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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