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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘+ n# }8 g4 R7 Y- o6 l% I" ?) O' U
# u! \1 [/ r: z. ^ 初盘高水,豪门要防冷$ V! D7 K1 j: d& Y$ }+ N7 a
1 q1 b6 F1 g3 ^( J# ` 7 c! L& O/ S3 ?' @+ ?6 b9 e+ ?$ v" _
09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
2 @( w9 A: d6 Z1 p$ Z 英超主队
; ]/ h2 w2 ~4 l0 R% h; t$ d 胜:11场 79%
+ p. ?0 z7 j) g$ v9 A/ U1 j$ n 平:2场 14%7 T: d: S2 x: r; k
负:1场 7%
1 h- C5 z( i9 S: W* J1 f& \
" j' U, L+ R7 Z! l 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
) ~6 X. Z* v# U5 ?: Z! _
1 U4 L4 S6 C& F& N% z" z' d 一、初盘阶段# A- r- n& O% w7 h* n
& o1 q1 R3 [( h5 t2 C' K
具体到水位如下:
* C* u1 a) k; B, ]! |. f+ g6 n, t$ o 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
5 R3 Z. w& u4 g/ ]2 S* l) F 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
k$ D, P# s4 [! M 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
/ Q( [0 a3 G( M; Y- F# X0 ^ ; [ [: X' Q# C6 g
分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
5 ]; b8 C6 {/ c# y$ _) A
2 q" w. F2 d* P6 G: e) U- U 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.004 L4 H5 U! b n& G" G3 U
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
' e* b& C S2 I( _+ M: G 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
& ^- w% ]( e. Q" I4 [ + n4 c z3 X/ l& b. z
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
" e' c% c1 c% Z0 b5 K% F 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
! U8 K( W7 | J, }9 j
6 z3 W) ?1 l; K 二、临场阶段+ ~7 }2 u: ]' Q& c/ F
! E; k( f/ L# ]" s7 S9 j. u; z 具体到盘口如下:
3 n1 r9 c- f( Y" ^6 s3 b6 [ 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
3 A" B5 V' i4 h# ^ 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
% c8 J0 s: m. B2 K- a y+ P$ U5 h& { 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
9 l$ s$ c+ T9 O0 d$ v9 t
4 _1 D' a5 W7 L* _& |% A5 Z 热刺VS伯恩利) z/ A. b8 ?$ C7 j) d( Y* d$ ]5 r
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.004 ?( x- Z2 ?4 U& P* m
终盘:0.77球半1.092 U, Z/ |) |7 d1 |+ v' ~0 B/ T- h
- U m* S+ W( c8 n' \ 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。9 I1 r* x) {: l- y
. r+ ?3 y' G# p: K& Q) q8 F 三、球队表现, U3 f5 k( _6 Q/ |3 O* r( u# _7 ?
* M3 D( S' U7 x. f 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
! \* a% o' o! F, u6 K
4 s1 A. ]3 I! m2 x; O5 R% T 四、投注要点
3 j: X3 e0 c* @) C0 Y
- q* ^" ~) W0 Y! _* T9 ?! D 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证 _5 g8 E* ?% B2 P
要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
6 e5 X, I, ~* ]: E: }4 G5 J" F! l 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能9 d/ H0 s1 X8 @: U
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
0 @# r- g* t: Y( s- ]+ [ 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
1 v" c6 I+ n) Y a; m4 I* O. Z: i3 ^ 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任* a; z8 {! @; D4 U. l# i5 n; R' z
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
9 B* ?, L* N# w1 r& _" U
9 W8 h8 u1 B. [2 P. v 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法- g' d% I F# Y
对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
6 N6 h/ D, A9 J) P& g0 M( A: t 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。9 w2 n0 l3 r' T( p
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