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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘- y. o% u+ K. n( L1 y  m: y8 M* z
     8 q" D0 x7 F) c% K: D/ X+ A/ v+ r
     平手中水,主队有利7 j  E: a0 H, k5 }5 ]
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
  r" S7 }& X1 U3 J- K2 |. w9 n. m     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
) f+ f0 G+ s# A: K0 O     英超主队
# v4 G- f) |  N5 _) N7 T4 [* B     胜:13场 48%, ^+ Z, T7 X+ D  b( {
     平:5场 17%& `, f: u: d2 a, H
     负:9场 35%) i& |4 O! \$ h+ I0 c; E! `
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
- n7 w, \$ s' `  k# M# h     / o& A4 \& S! |6 J! ?  b
     一、初盘阶段8 m' b$ t: l3 a7 n0 |
     具体到水位如下:: a8 \/ T/ \% f6 {7 l
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
& d, D" W2 r% ~: V7 s* O: M! q     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负" o4 K* k, G* ?. g5 c
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负# P: q2 z% L$ I" Y
     
* Y/ X0 \% f  k     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。4 G2 L; [# G& |0 s
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。: l2 S5 X% ]3 F' n: H% E
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。7 x7 f; ?; h/ g, V" E
     
. r- W; h& M1 b7 N' M' y     二、临场阶段' Y. j% h6 {# C* L) ?% Q
     * h) b( i! S- S7 ]- ?0 k
     具体到变盘和水位如下:* @; q% q/ `+ o) t5 B
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负7 O1 g) j% l# l- F# i
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
2 q/ A1 A; G9 x' ~5 j/ d     
$ x* }2 p5 c0 P* g     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
: p+ ?) W6 G8 @2 ^% n, t; u     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:* s+ h9 F+ S4 r( M( g1 I% W
     0 ]3 L- @3 K: y% G& ~
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
' {1 S; ?2 }$ |     初盘:0.82平手1.042 N8 j- A0 z" ^! f5 A* F$ l4 W0 j  r
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
1 s. n/ \1 n4 V! l2 g1 O     , f+ T1 S3 D3 c! J
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
7 X8 o; f' H0 ?4 h# O( w* w     初盘:0.76平手1.10
: D9 S8 E; f! {+ g     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
& c+ T: E- V$ H' \3 c7 U5 s     % Y4 T' D2 s( l- C. J
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技7 w& a" w: L& v& ?
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
) A, Q+ c2 k. [% e+ e* T' X     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.987 n, N( y; |0 E7 `8 B' v. ]
     * w) N0 {" Y$ H) @0 i8 i$ L
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆0 M1 Q3 ?8 d5 A; K* Z2 B
     初盘:0.88平手0.984 a9 Y' c8 t& Z* ?6 }
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
1 J' n3 K8 ~6 o+ y, g     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。$ P" o, P( ]. }# k# b% i
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
5 ^- q7 [, k& \4 z* Z9 G: z     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。( d! t1 b8 P" B! t- ^) T+ i
     : h* t' e; f& T6 L5 I
     三、球队表现5 U& ]; p0 H0 m$ B- o
     2 L9 s" t# n+ P, W1 f. f# O
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
( t* ^/ ]- d: U* q     0 {, W1 n$ W2 J, b5 f
     四、投注要点
1 u" {& i! S& s! G* \7 x: g     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
: n2 L; Z! `7 |% K4 C/ H& y; @     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
! b/ r5 h; h# X7 I9 T1 N" ~     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败; K( X8 f/ k9 @: L* ]% m4 z
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
( g- d# c' V9 a! C     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任9 ]8 s% x. ?% O; T" R" h8 V
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
6 {% R- o1 W3 ^6 t. Z( s. _     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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