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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 4 R$ N9 {8 }. ?
余勋也不例外、 $ |0 d2 i; Y+ H6 S8 y1 h. X e
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 7 t& O0 ?! C8 I% _0 u# q
是保经济的重要决策！
, f' S+ G$ ?* X; H6 c: O- d这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
& B3 |$ x6 w) {; N! [5 }( \低点26700-32400、 6 L. P5 g& h$ f- e1 t* L
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
: W1 G) z0 J' b; V/ Q但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 8 q" V9 f4 Z/ L4 y8 L
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
& ^/ V% t( r3 R涨幅就已回撤过半！ 2 u' |3 s e$ f. L7 o W. d
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
: E. y9 G* e* t# G, c7 O# w5 M& I: l& Q不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
' Y0 `; x1 Q, V7 x" X其次、
0 c" [* s% p3 [$ @+ O6 A& V缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 8 e; S& T7 M. e1 w( E
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 + S( {. N i) E
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 ) g% N0 L9 H, G% m2 G9 W2 w
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
3 I f8 s; i# q) D V: S4 b, ^但回到币圈、
! `# q ^: O4 x: W, E去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 - J0 ~; _3 Y2 \0 _
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 ; C+ R( b2 p/ j, e$ G) n% A* b
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 9 @0 |" t M L5 r% _6 \; a
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 9 f. V) t( y3 p6 p) Y5 d6 s2 g! [- z
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
7 i" u" S7 ~: |! k对当前的底部、影响有限。
) @5 W+ t* F5 s' ^6 `最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 % O3 K5 O$ q: X) Q
所以27000、即是 4 a7 J$ c9 O7 \+ ? A& i0 s f6 l
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
! s* M! J' ?, N) q& D9 W2 I! q同时还是去年放水初期低点、
0 H0 C" T0 `5 j( K( L- d也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 8 R! }- P$ I3 E8 n
由此得出的结论是、
1 @0 f* |/ u; E U# E q/ j加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 5 j6 ?9 Y* S2 c4 v% q0 b
点位不会出现太大偏离。
5 k# a: ~/ H* K) i' o5 n5 O3 [综合以上、 4 m e% n. W7 H7 s! b7 V$ ]6 u
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
8 @! Z; B3 z3 M在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
, A$ @5 s7 O! p那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ) P& n. d! U, h# `1 m# s
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 6 V- n; t5 t# u2 U/ M
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 + Y: L7 Q) Z: V/ \; @( S) @0 `
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 - ?. {- |. {2 u; w" J+ y2 t- O
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
1 v% { w: K' \夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 ' C+ \) {9 x7 I5 a3 o6 J
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
- ~: E4 \/ y3 t% N7 J4 P. @+ c逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
: W7 X! \0 A0 K; i高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ; q* j! [1 ~# l
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 8 y# G8 ]; W; i# Y
得不偿失。 ; m0 m3 s; O% c/ L( ? m
来源：金色财经 |
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