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一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。
7 B6 `9 m3 Q2 _+ O: j0 T那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:
3 c8 h- W: ~- B2 e4 f: YA(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}, m, i- d2 t' Q: E" U
A(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}5 V3 j% {2 U+ w
A(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:# \2 c# l! W4 C6 I+ q: S1 |( @5 Z
P(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}
5 M% ?4 ?4 ?- m& v" v0 k% {二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline)
4 ^3 f" o7 n) t+ Q1 h- Z1 g假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:2 {. }' k7 r/ Q$ M+ m
{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生2 h2 ^8 F7 i' E" {1 }$ P4 o
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
|- l' M( ?3 U2 g/ S{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
0 s9 t& `# ]9 _. V( y, B/ C7 J以及
4 L+ K( r! r# [2 T3 K5 F{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
- T* y! K& v' ~) X, sR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生6 J* @- U5 { r
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生$ L& R6 g6 q0 D: P
如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率
9 D+ Q" j! c) T5 L) S0 @那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为6 ?' ]1 N; d9 _
E[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]
! m5 i; Y; ~" J3 c2 ?1 B) \E[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]8 e V n' V. c
按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等, e- Y3 z5 w9 T& I. b
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h)% c: X- R' L2 {4 A/ t# ?- W$ c
P(d)+p(h)O(h)=1
2 ~( R" a: L. U% O, p$ \: T) fO(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式- H/ H3 n2 J6 R/ T( I% Q9 _
E[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a), n, h. L! N9 P5 o- Q1 o4 y- ]
P(d)+p(a)O(a)=19 r4 S6 z: ^3 {) [: H3 i+ v
O(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式7 z) Q j7 x3 o5 v8 R
在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数, y- H) g. G5 S, n I/ V4 {
三、半球盘的计算描述) F0 p* p) D6 Z( }
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况)7 ^, u- s$ X% t# n; v) S
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:4 x3 \: @( X. h2 T' j1 m
{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
) K4 D1 {4 u, {4 }R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生. X# ~# N- T, _' u! O( @
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生- E9 g' i8 h: p5 x1 U1 j
以及# P. F8 b- V, k( u
{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
: d' X4 A- ]7 X( k p& e4 w. K, ZR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
# d9 N& j! P: F0 u& y{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
) {9 {0 v5 p; w5 O, m& r$ R如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率1 u l( [; k" c" V6 {* P$ h
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为9 w1 [, j. Z9 U! t% Y& j& F
E[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]
3 N; w. c3 ?$ SE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)
" |% y' N$ k, ~7 F _3 O* I假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等5 P0 D( {2 a6 v/ L
E[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h)$ z6 v4 [% q" o- m
O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=14 G; b* O9 h8 B
O(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]
, U4 p8 F) R' [6 W) R) UE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)
8 P& X# T$ \7 j! f; ^P(a)*O(a)=1
3 N4 I# Q% ~ Z1 z6 b/ u/ V9 MO(a)=1/P(a)
( @/ P# x* Q4 k; S同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率8 i# Z$ c6 @) Q9 P7 w" T
O(h)=1/p(h)- `( j: d0 } x. [; S
O(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]
9 @* o& T/ E; {% I: c# Z0 B% r$ g四、平半球盘的计算描述
( F2 Y+ l; S" q4 r* t这个稍复杂一点' E# x; o0 L$ X$ I' v9 w* x: ~
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况)
" E) T1 }) q) \ P还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:, j X7 q6 O# T( n( C, {
{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
1 P g( \ k9 FR(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
& x3 |' X& [$ M' H8 y{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生% W; d5 c2 ]$ V4 `8 z/ J/ t6 P$ T
以及
' s7 {- ^8 ]$ \. N* G+ n{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生* z& ]5 d* l7 c8 B% l4 o
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生* ?, Y4 i) c0 N! v1 q
{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生8 [/ Y" T5 K! X7 M% C
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为6 P9 X) f3 D4 p1 _
E[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))( v8 [1 t* @1 _" ]7 j
E[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]
! T, p( [& j1 a和上面计算过程相似,得出:) [% r8 u5 L4 H! R! S3 A; t% t
E[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h)# Y' c4 X8 }) I2 Q# `0 K
P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=1
6 D' N" E0 P* r% W! ~O(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=11 Z9 F; s& R; s6 L4 b1 n+ e8 c& |
O(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))
: E) f) f) t/ S, O$ ]/ VE[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a): T% w* k! z/ k
1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=1) C3 Y: a; P0 }2 x
O(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a)+ n' S. p& E0 M$ v. |
同样主队让平半就分别是
0 r8 V# g8 f% q- C4 P' XO(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h)6 y; G! Q, R! D3 Y
O(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a))
! h) X4 k: w6 x# r: X: }五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的): ~/ k& ]7 x7 A+ X
可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算
1 D5 T9 K6 s4 @' [4 n1 ^( v4 IB(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}0 o# D# |3 `" @% x% P: M
B(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}' X8 O# Y. S0 t! {
B(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数& P# D4 y5 ]. E9 i0 w% s
接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:% `) g' q H0 q/ F
{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生5 L% ?3 T, C# R( {" g7 _4 [4 I) S% {
R(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
2 T9 O# ? ^6 @8 z- t; l{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生1 N6 L K y) O" `- y
以及, I6 `: z$ ]- i
{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
0 k" F6 d3 _' |, w, `4 ZR(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
2 L0 [' \+ C2 t% f) v0 M{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
. G( \8 @9 Y" Q. P投注主客的期望回报总数分别为 }: g; v- p; L2 m' S
E[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]
5 O3 n9 F5 x- M) x7 KE[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))* p$ ?6 I/ P5 R/ @: l3 T) p4 ?; W
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
( O* ^4 g Y8 @) k* ]' ]6 OE[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h)
# [3 F. [( \- {% e% Q( u* C7 EP(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=1
* `6 \ }6 }$ F0 _& JO(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)
: z( X0 c; i: C6 HO(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1))
3 J3 n' l' A( k& gE[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a)) G: X. L0 {# u3 E, U
P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1
3 r- v0 U, }: u5 xO(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1)
. i+ F5 C6 ?7 L. H8 TO(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h))
" b+ K T5 m! `4 h2 F以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。
% x( P% l/ A8 r! B" z# `简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。 |
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