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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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2 U% ]9 A, E5 V, {只跟踪一个联赛
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9 M5 |* m1 N' E& a' a  b. h+ r! h全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔" P: l/ w  F+ j4 A5 D% Q
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，: c$ G0 O+ _( w  w- _: s) T' L: `8 H

0 P; M8 k1 z$ R; s  c& f- m偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。, W* u- G, p7 h8 W  O6 [9 n( o

' x/ k* D# N5 P! J$ l) ^方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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4 G4 u5 ?" e& @1 S然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱3 d& \1 X; X: i# U2 |& I

; A& k: f3 |9 E3 ~6 Y9 r' c当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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- p: R9 j7 X( @" V亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，, G! C! I! |/ j; h. r) Q9 J2 G* i9 H

; w/ M& e9 D* T而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
- ^3 X- x+ A; E5 Y9 g. Z0 \. o2 w! t1 a( {$ b0 h
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
# g. t' C8 [7 A* [( @  Z- Y1 b- _4 s1 Z, {% v- @: |
排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，7 @% t& ^9 i9 y8 J- S

( i2 @: k5 E( g4 O! y- ~. h. X但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，7 D1 P: k/ G+ \& ]0 l  h/ G  Z( F
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这比买国债存银行合算。8 |/ `9 ?/ i* E% |
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，& b9 C# |4 v5 ~4 y# F# ]+ y4 f
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。: h; _6 }8 l1 d8 \$ j3 c
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- q6 ^. `4 J, s7 B3 S4 r) R& [1 b4 n4 r) n5 D3 S- Q) d3 i
常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。0 R" M# T0 M' s
: V6 R9 i- B! P1 l, b
放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，- v* S2 H! E, {" |

8 R2 T4 n: c' o$ [1 [; i* G: M7 I就是回避了大的亏损，" X0 y9 I- U6 P7 i# ]

3 o/ n( \0 ^; b- C7 t5 W大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，) g0 M! @2 E8 P# a3 ]6 o

$ F/ C( Z/ E$ O) t* v回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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