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[lastpost] => 2780098 比特币国库“熊市”危机结束了吗？（转） 1762726427 sunnyclare001
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币大户正在抛售，但随着需求减弱，买家寥寥无几。（转）
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近几日，比特币价格一直难以稳定在 102,000 美元以上，数据显示，这主要是由于抛售压力与新增需求之间明显失衡造成的。& P/ `& x) W9 M! z1 a
6 A3 R1 n x& @ a+ tCryptoQuant的链上数据显示，尽管长期持有者一直在积极获利了结，但市场吸收其抛售的能力有限。这与牛市的前几个阶段形成鲜明对比，当时不断增长的需求能够抵消长期持有者增加的抛售活动。
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7 @! o# N% ~3 U9 b& L$ u+ Q% Y长期持股者抛售压力上升，与以往牛市周期如出一辙3 D7 x* H: g# W
来自链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 的数据，最初由……共享CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 指出，比特币持有者的活动动态发生了有趣的变化，这可能会影响加密货币的下一步走势。
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Julio Moreno解释说，在牛市中，长期持有者（LTH）抛售是一种正常现象，因为当比特币价格接近或超过历史高点时，投资者会获利了结。CryptoQuant的数据显示，自10月初以来，过去30天的LTH支出总额（如下图紫色线所示）一直在增加。: R, I. a" W, j L$ W
6 }3 O' z9 O2 F( ]/ g; Q0 \0 e k这种行为与之前的牛市行情阶段类似，例如 2024 年初和年末的牛市行情，当时获利回吐与需求扩张同时发生，因此比特币价格创下新纪录。. O% x; X2 d3 M: I+ E: ?' z9 a" W
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莫雷诺帖子附带的图表显示，绿色区域代表需求明显增长的时期，红色区域代表需求收缩的时期。2024年1月至3月以及2024年11月至12月期间，随着需求扩张，长期股票出现抛售。
3 @* }$ B/ o" o( k b- q莫雷诺指出，需要关注的关键因素不仅是长期持有者抛售的数量，而且是需求增长能否跟上步伐。/ @6 ?( g. Z, k
; W5 f8 }- C! J& i! G当需求强劲时，长期持有者的持续供求往往会推动价格在下一轮上涨之前出现健康的盘整。相反，当需求疲软时，结果往往是价格出现长时间的回调或横盘整理。. \! y9 B- b6 A/ j
- u5 ~' Z2 p7 i- n; C9 g目前，很大一部分需求来自现货比特币ETF，而这些ETF的资金流入已大幅放缓。来自 SosoValue数据显示，总部位于美国的现货比特币 ETF 上周收盘时，11 月 7 日星期五净流出资金达 5.5844 亿美元，这是数周以来单日最大资金流出之一。( O9 ]% I6 s' i1 m5 O) @
* c! T: r* l( [2 p除非比特币的明显需求在未来几周开始复苏，且长期看跌期权（LTH）的抛售持续，否则这可能会继续打压价格走势，并推迟比特币下一轮上涨行情。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到比特币在11月剩余的时间里继续在101,000美元至103,000美元之间盘整。8 e c' u4 ~2 O& [/ G7 x5 Z
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截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为 101,655 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌了 0.6%。
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