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人工智能的爆发式增长正引发对电力的空前渴求,而能够立即满足这一需求的供给却极为有限。据追风交易台消息,根据摩根士丹利21日的研究报告,
A: V5 @4 N9 A6 a2025年至2028年间,仅美国就面临高达45吉瓦(GW)的数据中心电力缺口。9 i# Z! b' X6 {
即便考虑到天然气、核能等其他创新解决方案,缺口依然存在。
9 V6 H$ b0 \& V7 h: ? I! g$ C) L+ N' X与需要数年才能并网的新项目不同,比特币矿企拥有现成的、已接入电网的大型场地和电力容量。报告指出,
1 I. B# J+ a% H- K; O. V美国比特币矿企拥有约6.3吉瓦的已运营大型站点,以及另外2.5吉瓦在建产能,是AI公司“最快获得电力、执行风险最低”的选择。
' c% r- x# h9 _+ e( A, A5 i目前,许多比特币矿企的股票估值仍停留在挖矿逻辑上,其“企业价值/瓦特”(EV/Watt)指标极低。报告测算,. s9 B( y8 \( @% z6 \1 V" B
将矿场改造为数据中心所创造的股权价值可达每瓦特5至8美元,远高于这些公司当前的交易水平。7 s+ o- X! R6 K
对于投资者而言,这或许意味着一个显著的价值错配和潜在的Alpha机会。# [. I. I1 U; N" |. n% v- ~5 l& A
迫在眉睫的电力瓶颈3 q# z& S ?" s1 v+ I
AI对算力的需求呈指数级增长,但这背后是电力的硬约束。摩根士丹利的模型显示,2025至2028年间,美国数据中心的电力需求预计为65吉瓦。然而,目前电网能提供的近期接入容量仅为15吉瓦,加上在建的约6吉瓦数据中心,两者相加后仍存在约45吉瓦的巨大电力缺口。
* R5 j& h6 n3 {3 g( K# W' C报告分析,即使将天然气涡轮机交易(约15-20吉瓦)、Bloom Energy的燃料电池(约5-8吉瓦)以及利用现有核电站的方案(约5-15吉瓦)等所有创新措施都考虑在内,并假设它们都能顺利执行,/ q0 X! k# t3 H( V) K3 B7 f
到2028年,美国数据中心开发者仍将面临约5至15吉瓦的电力短缺。 a1 N u/ N6 d e- z- a( ~+ [8 f
施耐德电气最近的一份调查报告也印证了这一挑战,指出“获取电力”已成为数据中心项目延期的首要原因。
6 ~! P% @* b% t- d$ B! n" l+ D# M: z被市场低估的“电力现货”:比特币矿场的独特价值) J2 e- Z/ c8 K# m9 Z8 o- }
在电力瓶颈之下,比特币矿场提供了一个看似出人意料却又合乎逻辑的解决方案。摩根士丹利指出,这些矿场拥有AI玩家最看重的核心资产:
5 K( M1 U* R: V4 ~- Z$ L/ r已获批的电网连接和大规模电力供应能力。这使得它们可以绕开新建数据中心通常需要经历的、耗时数年的“大负荷互联”审批流程。! \6 r3 L( O( A, g0 M2 k2 a7 ~7 I8 _" B* h* {
数据显示,
. ^9 O6 V6 E0 r7 m m c, T2 u美国比特币矿企拥有约6.3吉瓦已投入运营的大型(100兆瓦以上)站点,另有2.5吉瓦在建,以及8.6吉瓦已获得电网接入许可的开发中项目。3 Z# z( E' }! ?: Y" e. U% c
报告认为,这些现成的电力资源对AI公司具有极高价值,将这些站点改造为AI数据中心,其建设周期(约18-24个月)与比特币站点从开发到完善电力基础设施的时间线可以完美契合。; ?2 g. g) M& W) m! S% l; L' a2 |
摩根士丹利强调,“企业价值/瓦特”(EV/Watt)是评估此类公司价值的一个被市场忽视的关键指标。许多比特币矿业公司的估值仍显著偏低。
$ M, Y! _; X: e2 y" A将比特币矿场改造为HPC数据中心所能创造的经济价值是惊人的。摩根士丹利通过一个价值创造分析模型进行了演算:假设一家比特币矿企将一个100兆瓦的站点改建成一个“带电外壳”数据中心(不含芯片和服务器),然后长期租赁给客户。
9 i. v2 l M, h3 Q分析显示,
- J5 @$ C! o5 _# z" c) ^& s$ a若租户为大型云服务商(Hyperscaler),该项目可创造约5.19亿美元的股权价值,即每瓦5.19美元。若租户为新兴云服务商(Neocloud),可创造的股权价值更高,达到约7.81亿美元,即每瓦7.81美元。
6 n+ `9 R' ? r3 q报告指出,这个约5至8美元/瓦的价值创造潜力,远高于目前许多比特币矿业股的交易水平。这种交易结构通常采用项目融资,杠杆率高,同时避免了持有芯片本身带来的商业风险,对各方都具有吸引力。- F3 r, [3 q y. v/ J
本文来自华尔街见闻,欢迎下载APP查看更多+ b5 g4 ^# h/ K, a
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这波矿工转AI供电简直稳如老狗,估值修复怕是要起飞啊 |
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比特币矿企可能成为解决AI供电需求的一大机会,投资者得好好把握哦 |
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