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小分3种情况:
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( h% a. o% f: v* _' @1 c( U1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。$ m6 ^/ m3 h! ?* s+ i* {1 L
) |( L1 y3 `& [3 f2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
+ H; F9 x( l" _
. i. ~8 q4 X. I6 E1 U$ h6 q# s' @2 a: J* i3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
2 x1 Z6 F1 I% _& }5 m; Q0 G
- p4 h' V, p1 r L3 W0 q) Y2张牌8或9点的情况有:
# ^% d# K0 R0 `& h' G i. I7 H9 C
2 M- i: @, {, w/ g4 F: a1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
7 d4 }/ ], Y. D N; z, O0 i
- r: l9 o2 x7 x1 c3 `+ D1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4156 {" N2 Q' S6 f2 I
- n( U! I N+ m- { X/ M4 J4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415* `' ~3 ] x! F
$ c& A$ c7 s7 ]* e" b& Z0 e7 R8 |% M8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415- X" m3 D5 I/ Y* `
9 S5 s" D/ ]; [) |- k' P由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
" l. Z( p$ ]+ p& \6 D8 _! @6 P7 ]- A
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
) g3 Y3 Z5 k/ X# A9 K0 r
8 \2 s0 @% _9 g6 t那么我们可以得出
% _; p7 }0 z+ c( T" A" V! g: B2 b6 ^0 t% R8 n
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
8 J/ e- w3 s- {+ V& y( J# }- I2 v+ Q- e( i) ^/ X
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 # J8 e, y) c6 Z
, W- W3 x) `8 x8 R, X, k
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491; F. X; J2 N" ~: P7 u
( l& h& ]6 G* ~5 V# x* V0 q2 Z所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
% v5 p0 u0 O! |1 p, c- W# G3 m+ y( i$ X. R! f3 d2 M
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
4 b5 [2 d1 Q6 Q3 |4 z( M |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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