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小分3种情况:
! {, t. g, R. a3 m- F1 C4 z. E0 L/ \7 N, e
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。# n5 x0 r1 F& J, W4 T
) q4 W. ]8 ^/ i
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。3 G1 v( D3 C& r9 a
& D9 N. R/ z1 X6 _9 P5 O: }- b& y
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
3 K2 c0 l5 U; y( f, S1 ?. P; V& i0 O/ E1 f# M
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
) G- U3 e0 |2 s' N0 O) J0 f ]- ]* e# ` C' }
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
7 m7 |# r* K- V8 h W$ j- a) O
9 @+ j* x2 H9 K1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
$ L* q y, |- x1 U3 _. ^/ ^1 O7 {9 U |8 J( m) C" F
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
9 j' M4 D9 f& p. n
/ I* I9 l t0 }3 e8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415' ?- [! n. @: a2 t3 P
$ E5 F: M$ N* g0 P6 O& {; B
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
) G. [9 r2 o! J& s
) }, e. k7 ~$ N0 v6 p1 }* f通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。& n" H9 ~ K! k6 V- q% _
, d O# h8 w+ ]4 i7 c
那么我们可以得出1 h& f8 ^3 [1 y) R8 Y
2 P U( }( \; s( V$ Y1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
. o3 Z% |$ j% Q5 _6 P# h1 ]1 }" f: P: n
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 6 \+ s. @' h4 W1 ~- Y2 O
" `( @! ~( |7 l- _8 t$ _, j3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
4 m# `7 _2 N b: @: ~1 y; D
7 n' f0 S0 Q4 E9 V所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
\' }% V2 c7 {$ |
9 q! R7 N/ w7 f j1 } b百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
) T1 p/ N+ L' z Y8 v/ i |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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