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[体育菠菜玩法规则] 博彩长捧现象简析
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1#
我们经常在某一联赛中发现这么一个现象,就是一个队伍持续好赢盘或持续不赢盘。
" t( F5 U7 Q& u$ Y* b我们在体育博彩术语中称之为长捧,下面简单说下长捧现象的产生与应用。
* O% R8 L/ C! Z% C      在赌客心理学中闲家都追求一种平衡,一个队伍输多了自然有人会追他该赢了,赢多了也有人会去讨论他什么时候输,如一个在闲家心中印象极好的豪门球队。若一轮不小心惨败,那么下轮在闲家心中势必有这种先入为主的想法:就是这场再输的可能性比较小!这也成为豪门效应,那么我们不妨为博彩公司设想下,倘若这个豪门再输一场又会如何?接着假设这个豪门果真连败了,又到了下一轮,遇到的是一直实力极差的队伍,历史数据各方面都占尽优势,那么闲家心理第一感觉是什么:当然是这次总该赢了吧,不可能三连败三轮不胜吧?1 Y- N6 j4 V+ T+ ]
      那么我们不妨再为庄家设想下,要是豪门再次不胜又会怎么样,要知道再各大联赛中豪门场次下注量往往是远远高于其他场次的,若能连爆冷门,给庄的利润是不可言喻的。( x8 F2 c3 N% e, }% ^! b
      这样的例子其实比比皆是,上赛季国际米兰三连败最后输的是客场极差的布雷西亚,在输了他之后主场面对切沃,澳门让半一几乎所有人认为非赢不可的是国际米兰也只是打了个一比一,还是不胜。而皇马最后几轮无论是多大的盘对输到底,开句玩笑叫一输到底才叫真的输!0 Z# h/ H$ |. ]
      不单单是豪门,意架主场龙佩鲁甲上赛季的主场却是欲求一胜而不得,我们知道意甲假球泛滥。最出名的几个队伍就是佩鲁甲 乌迪内斯。我们来从佩鲁甲第一场开始想想:新赛季开始,我们下注佩鲁甲第一感觉是什么?当然是主场龙形象,胜AC米兰,4比1横扫国米,那么再遇到实力不强的队伍时我们自然会不自觉的资金倒向他,就形成了一个热门,那么就是庄家做局最佳对象了,接着佩鲁甲主场平AC米兰似乎主场龙名不虚传,但是我们接着就发现。他主场无论对谁都是不能取胜,一直到输给罗马。十几轮之后佩鲁甲仍是一场不胜,闲家就拼命的追佩鲁甲该赢球,但佩鲁甲无论对什么对手就是不赢,当闲家最的手软的时候他却在一贯差劲的客场又赢了切沃!不是一直不赢球,只是不能在太多人想到的时候赢!!!!!8 V( \$ a1 O  P* m8 E0 ^
      以上都是长捧长无的队伍,与之相反的是一些长捧长有的好队伍,上赛季的阿森纳就是如此到八九轮就有人开始关注什么时候该输,但就是红旗不倒,切尔西的客场盘路也是喜欢追强队下盘闲家朋友的滑铁卢,就是赢盘,个性分明的就非纽卡斯尔联莫属。主场盘路极佳,客场却是打到底就两胜盘路也是萋萋惨惨,说到底都是因为给人是强队印象。2 R% a3 ~2 [% F" e, y
      在小联赛中,这种现象也是很常见的,我曾经在美国联赛中看见肯萨斯就一直追了七个星期,输了一个盘后我又追了他连输三周,结果只错两次,再如佐加顿斯一见他第一感觉就是输盘的对象!凭白省了很多看盘的麻烦。
7 p# O! b: B9 |" C3 F      昨天的西布朗维奇,没有多想去了他,因为凭这么多年看五大联赛的感觉,几乎每个联赛,每年都必有支非常堕落的豪门以及一支非常出色的升班马,如上赛季西甲的赛尔塔,曼联。利物浦,国际米兰,尤文图斯 皇马你见过几个赢盘超过输盘的,与之相反的是朴茨矛斯开赛长捧长有,弗雷堡,桑普主场长捧长赢,我个人这次把英超中票投向了西布朗维奇。  X+ v. b# O: U5 _$ v- W5 b
      阿森纳不会布输,但在切尔西,曼联 利物浦面前输的可能性却很小,不是不输,时候未倒,一旦输了,也许就不是一两个盘的盘路了!
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2#
新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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3#
新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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4#
谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的分享。。。学习。
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6#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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