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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
& d, F: [* X0 s! l; p/ f+ `( N' N/ n$ d) v0 j# t' p3 ~4 q* G

5 g5 ?9 O- D5 v1 Z只跟踪一个联赛
! S  H$ c+ g7 a. c' W% [' i% n/ |1 g% n7 X; \

% `& t; D/ ^% [* J% y# a) M全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
) v# R4 i& t6 ^% Z% F  j$ m5 z# B0 L  b2 }/ ?
三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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" N! [6 |  F7 Z2 f5 P$ B! X0 b2 l偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
5 ~$ @/ S; B! ^' f  D$ u+ E6 V
8 p( ~* ~( _7 Y& |1 [方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
) X3 D) p  Y, v$ U* M' a, H3 `
, ]+ P* X$ t* m6 k% t9 V9 B4 O2 u然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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+ I  P: Y1 L7 f& \" ?9 i就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目  e2 F2 H  r  O- b5 A3 x9 D

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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，8 O4 L" y7 M! b7 a, }1 _

( r" `; }- e$ @  p8 }而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，+ l7 D$ Q8 ~$ g& I; u4 d

) a7 Y  Y& O, I8 h但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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' x0 n8 D) S# I' B) j理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
& j% W) F( l, G& |6 U. z
4 D. d" ~0 }* t排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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顶起再慢慢看

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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，" o3 K; `1 D; M7 o
. F. Q% O8 j/ j2 o$ x4 M8 R/ D
但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，0 u5 v& v3 y$ p# y

$ S; \# d7 Q: d, T4 K4 p这比买国债存银行合算。3 c3 r! |! Z, C
  m; k& t/ s- P
在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。5 {) l2 W& Z3 J' \# ~* @

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$ h2 h' j! B9 S/ Q  t3 v常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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2 M0 K5 C+ j* I9 K放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，2 E7 T$ r/ J8 u+ V
4 `! _. v% U: T6 K
就是回避了大的亏损，3 Q1 N3 p) v) \6 S/ l) I

" V* r; U  u# o( w+ w( U9 ]# r' m; M& o大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，& V: c/ ?0 t' g- `+ @; [2 G1 Y9 l

3 w$ |' ^2 }& n回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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