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[lastpost] => 2778667 比特币抛售持续——加密货币市场整体下行势头增强（转） 1762243667 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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# D+ a3 @) w0 d8 R: T. }# ]但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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, G# C; O$ B, e& }; I. R: g开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
6 u" \, U- T4 a2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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; a& X- w' l5 h7 Z( R1 E来源：Alphractal* b& x0 k6 |/ }$ I( H _
! ^, P3 I5 T) V15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。/ e# @9 @ @1 E5 N4 o% A
3 o# {7 ~7 U( l6 t7 t6 @尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了7 m: H. x! z( _- h$ g% ~0 k! K
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。7 p- N p0 Z2 I V
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来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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/ M, c7 T& J- W4 D6 FBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。/ _- v' U. a$ }: k9 f9 k
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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; x( x) j+ j: ]/ H空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
3 o W7 o# b7 h! {+ b( C经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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% ?( e; G- x& n# h: |然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。0 \8 d/ S, }0 S- F2 k8 n+ K1 Y
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。" X4 S2 w' _ A8 \8 M0 @7 `
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