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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
* C9 H" z) u' u! _0 N1 X+ l6 j
1 G2 Z ]. \6 d 平手中水,主队有利2 @# B1 X: |6 w: v8 V" T
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。; [+ U( i* c1 p- d1 Y/ ~: b& l
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:# P/ _% G7 f5 E( x
英超主队
7 b, v$ E! p7 C& \. G 胜:13场 48%
7 e0 j7 d! Q( ` 平:5场 17%
& A) b( }* v. ~ 负:9场 35% y0 P% m$ L2 _. b2 x
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
$ K) J0 F5 j( Q- @+ T! w9 ? L) W5 Y/ E4 B* ?: M
一、初盘阶段
/ ^3 Z8 ~5 o, D% s% E$ w, g 具体到水位如下:
* ^7 Z' U1 p; X4 Z) \5 p 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
5 z: K, N: U3 k2 _' v 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
0 P5 i- u' [/ f% d 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
6 H0 ]) B: V7 e) a! w9 x. I$ H4 Y
% a+ }4 f& J# @" ~/ u 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
" h- v: I t D1 J0 W0 Q7 J) r( t- f. D 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。: D" ~5 W& C# S4 W$ X* T
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。7 E* X7 K8 s/ f
5 @, W5 [$ }) k- G% G
二、临场阶段$ J0 e; I" z$ D9 R- j
' ^, }( t' t4 U- x
具体到变盘和水位如下:( z$ R+ U9 h& | i" f8 w1 C
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
/ z# Y5 K( S. d' _# _ 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负1 B/ s7 N; y9 T7 z \+ n0 E
6 k) E4 D/ `5 X0 q) u c 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。) t$ {9 {3 ]% Q8 v
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:) L4 _# Z% G& b2 Y q7 V
+ \) |3 a) e" S' N' k# I1 c
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿! w T4 f! P/ I z
初盘:0.82平手1.04
, X: a4 u" E* ~8 z7 i! A! F4 y 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85: w2 {8 e7 F3 n- Y
, R d* x8 O) N3 T
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆# C1 [3 o5 X$ y, m) E( V2 C- }
初盘:0.76平手1.10
$ b8 V% D9 u: Z, D+ b* a 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
1 B! q7 \- ` y# `3 w! A# y; Z 6 P! [% l& \0 Z2 \
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
) f+ ~1 a" |5 C 初盘:0.82平手1.048 a4 W0 v: B# [
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
/ m& @6 x* V; }! Y i
% \4 G6 G' a9 k0 }+ { 伯恩利2-1西汉姆; J# B* z, E" m' A* l+ X
初盘:0.88平手0.98
$ i$ {2 J% ?0 R+ g8 |, m; s& z6 W S 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
7 x5 V% Y( J( s$ i# } 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
% Y8 A" M. L- a8 n! c6 ], h6 x8 ~ 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
* `8 u( \0 s' B4 u 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
' z' A& ]3 x1 B& U # B# C& Q8 s+ e2 d: M8 w
三、球队表现0 c( B, Z- s* _& {* z$ M
; R7 p9 E1 P- x- t3 k1 N, p 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。5 n6 l3 K7 m. \) H4 _9 o
* v! t& f T# i8 T 四、投注要点
2 B/ ?. n" \8 v7 M6 g" o) T" R 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
6 p# `! T+ k0 o2 A 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
: h; b+ ?, R9 _ 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败0 J: H" J" K/ j
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
% D- ~7 P/ V( z# c9 p 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
& G3 `$ h8 Q& T) X9 b! g/ Q2 Z 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大! [$ l: {' n# o5 H
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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