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小分3种情况:
8 D2 t9 N2 M0 ?4 a2 I |
# q- |! p9 l7 c7 g5 \$ p) p1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。2 [ _9 \- _6 i
% F* f$ v& P4 }" s3 B3 }+ X5 R6 P
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
* \" U+ @2 x& \( B. @
# P5 k% Z! }4 i3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。/ ^5 l1 x* S3 e4 @: p8 h! V. C
9 }! i7 @; f5 c& B2张牌8或9点的情况有:
6 j9 B; F: s& ]; l$ Q/ }: H& |& U, l9 \; u; t! Q
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
5 O' g" @( c7 L/ R$ b' A1 T9 D. N
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4152 | W" R$ l6 m* K: n( F, c, H& Z% Y
: n4 N% M, Q% T7 t
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
8 n: \) v( g0 \; v) @0 S
! { f3 A2 O( a' U/ E7 E8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415. ~5 h/ s% s; G* Q( z f
# m1 P5 @$ L/ G. Q* H4 x1 j1 r
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。/ Q7 z; f! l0 B V4 I9 @ s/ i
# R. G& `5 e8 {; t, a
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
7 c& W0 O* {7 z u7 ]( H- L) ?
/ X: Q8 j: I* j那么我们可以得出
2 A1 _( x7 t) K/ u8 j! d
, c# |: A7 X( i. M1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.1894346626 {- P, ?$ O+ M6 j: \ H
1 Y" {; t7 x) ?6 }: a
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 1 ~6 p$ w+ q4 M( }3 ^
$ u% T8 F( r* Y' I+ } g1 x
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854914 ~" k1 A- d, C3 ^) J1 g
b: s' q d5 ~8 l( }所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
' [* F' Z; X+ c4 Y( W
+ B$ j: W* k6 w+ @百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677; P6 K# N- F8 C0 l+ j
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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