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水位变化一直是困惑新手老手们的问题 有些人喜欢看,有些人却不屑一顾,水位变化没有作用嘛!我不这么认为的,以下面这个来看.) T. ^1 x0 ]6 y: J4 d. ?
初盘:在初盘的计算中,按照操盘手们的话理解过来应该是这样子的.5 K; j4 M! j7 Y) f8 m
通过开盘公式计算出来的结果 = A *公司智囊团操盘手们的经验结果 = B
& [1 ~9 A9 c+ T1 [( E5 A*公司预计的闲家对这场比赛的认识结果 = C8 c9 H! h. ^! B
那么最后的初盘结果应该 = A*a + B*b + C*c
2 H( m. r# d z) d$ C8 V其中a b c为三个系数,我自己给它起了一个名字叫做,初盘体系系数. a+b+c= 100% 不同的*公司的系数体系肯定是不同的,也是众多闲家所无法得知和预测的.
' e! y" q% S" {" S) f6 n4 f解释一下上面的公式,如一场比赛中*公司为某个玩法(这里多数指欧盘,因为欧盘是指导盘,是最先开出来的)中项目A开赔率,首先就要计算其出现概率, 假设通过开盘公司计算出的概率为 40% 而智囊团操盘手们的经验得出的概率为45% 而*公司预计闲家们眼中的概率为70%.
1 W+ Y" M9 a5 h2 b那么最后开出的概率就是: 40%*a + 45%*b + 70%*c.' I1 L0 k. [9 U% t2 [4 m: ]9 c& \
通过上面的公司可以看出,*公司的开盘公式(或是其开盘计算理论)就是影响初盘三个因子中的第一个.好多人往往忽略了 *公司智囊团操盘手们的经验结果B 和 *公司预计的闲家对这场比赛的认识结果C的作用.我记得版面上有一篇经典的文章讨论中提到过和上述类似的理论,但是仅仅提到的是C,而没有B.
% V# Z6 U. m0 i Z+ G# U
1 Y2 F. W, @/ n1 y; {) t/ z在A B C三个因子中:
4 j9 M! i2 \- D* U5 s6 {3 yA 几乎是在开盘之后不变的,因为公式和理论仅仅对数据进行处理,同样的数据不可能在短时间内出现不同的结果.* k' ]: [, A0 C( V0 A0 X
B 有可能作出微小调整,可能赛前的某些消息和变化,会让智囊团和操盘手们改变对一场比赛的看法.6 d3 ~( w) M' j- }* F1 {
C 最有可能发生变化的因子.因为闲家们对一场比赛的看法很难用数据和理论进行统计,*公司往往也是一个估计性的结果.
" |, H( Z0 s0 K0 W5 T+ K% ^+ C以上解释就是我对初盘的理解.
$ F) J' S( a$ K; s0 E( W
( `4 P6 O% _8 f# J% m/ `2 G' t+ G在初盘被开出之后,实际上反作用于C,闲家们会根据*公司开出的初盘做出一定的调整,而实际上赛前一两天关于比赛发生的变化也参杂进来.所以在正式接受*的时候,初盘往往会做出一定的调整.
2 a) s) p2 J) l0 a引入上例中a b c 的体系系数,设a = 40% b = 20% c = 40% 得到概率为:(40%*40+45%*20%+70%*40%)= 53%
# q! j" k' h7 ~5 K假设在受住前后发生了一种变化 ,让*公司的智囊团觉得概率应该调整为 40%, 而大众反倒认为应该上升至80%
# [ a$ p( j" ~+ k g- ^那么调整之后的概率就是:(40%*40+40%*20%+80%*40%)= 56%
7 ]3 s1 E6 e& P% A也就出现了明明*公司不看好这个赛果出现,反而在赔率方面调高其出现概率的情况.
* ]1 @6 @1 [+ q7 a7 [! K0 X
E' u1 {8 C7 j, K m利用这个公式大家可以演变一下bc两个值的变化情况就可以解释大部分初盘到受注盘之间的变化情况.在此就不一一演示了.而所谓的大热必死也不一定全部出现,用这个公式的解释就是,如果A赛项为热门*赛项则*公司的赔率变化幅度要和大众的热衷程度保持一致,大热就未必死.一旦*公司的赔率变化幅度小于很多大众的热衷程度,两者存在较大差异,则大热必死就出现了.
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