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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。3 M7 g' L8 s( i0 R; j2 q
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。8 \- t; f* @& l2 b. X
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
8 h1 H9 n) a, N: w5 r4 B2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。( y4 w: w8 |+ M/ J3 Z
# d3 ^, E) U0 E来源：Alphractal
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5 j) @' P8 ~6 V5 |! u0 B! b, E15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。- ?8 e6 h% J9 Y
- h# i$ r' K6 d" z' A2 I) u5 J1 a尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。# K1 a/ i0 E) ?5 R
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事情变得有趣了
" |, c) e$ p+ z( L3 s$ b0 O& iBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。- d$ J# R2 c5 D2 \; Q
2 A1 n: l" X8 |) O来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。2 s/ s- A# V) ?" g; e: U5 R
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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! c9 M* q Q3 n. V% P( s正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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7 j* @& d8 o% v5 U0 N8 N2 \5 F" o' x随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。$ K1 w9 n; ^/ w7 `/ q7 a8 ?
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力/ _3 [2 [+ Z" ]3 Z; f0 q. V7 J
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。' c& P+ _$ M4 [$ ^8 P0 v: x/ B
9 P$ M8 d0 ?( {1 o8 A3 Q! i% R来源：TradingView
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. L! A% c3 u( I* O& q日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。5 Q; y; x& E& V. h$ Q
! s. P( \" f B( ?; p突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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