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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。1 ^! v6 h- M) r# ~# ?1 p& s# e, {. n
5 ~, d6 N4 `6 j3 r但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。; r! Y6 x0 d! @7 g9 U" |
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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; A! G7 [) b9 [8 H开局艰难，但历史看好牛市) C) @$ J. ~+ _# h
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal: x7 z' k8 j+ U& K5 C
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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& L2 ~) r3 B" E6 F5 R3 a% B1 m5 I事情变得有趣了" f, P' ^: j T( j. R
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。3 }' \: ]. B& |: C C# B/ I
3 f0 P1 s( K) @8 U$ f. j# L+ M来源：X7 @' e) |* S5 H0 k
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。6 T* k8 B2 R4 D
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力9 v, v) i. u9 h2 R1 @/ \' U6 w( Q
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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1 m$ w. B: s8 ]; t4 D3 r* E+ D% Q来源：TradingView
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0 `4 f0 e' |; X9 _" p+ h4 W日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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