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[lastpost] => 2778763 为什么纳瓦尔说：ZCash是针对比特币隐私的保险？（转） 1762248959 caoch
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？1 R% J/ f! V5 `0 `1 d {
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市* T4 ^9 a" e4 q0 G; U7 K, A" h
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。; v1 G3 V( }; @0 L
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来源：Alphractal- D- V, [) @. _( S' ?" ~: }& G0 @
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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' |1 x4 ]9 ^ w: b! \6 _/ Q事情变得有趣了
1 L! f, F0 `$ _2 `( [0 g# f0 xBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。0 w( q7 d: H1 @, J( h
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来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。2 H b2 t3 `/ B& F! V7 \, M* G' e# ?
+ E! I' o# W! P6 d+ D5 z EBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。8 `7 Z: ^6 K/ Q; U
( U2 e4 l/ O' s& r0 }* ?7 q正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。7 `, Q' x" R9 ^! V: q! _
) E @1 G3 K7 n# T) e. h9 R( X随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。" v! ^9 k, D5 B' s
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力* Q( j `5 h1 o, V/ }4 t: d
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。7 P4 ]( T4 N* g2 e( T- ?( e
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来源：TradingView# e& H! g& [5 R' C3 E6 F& ]
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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& u! x' Z6 z! W6 A( d' \9 y$ n! P然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。; [, c5 C# m9 _8 v' c
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。5 k# {3 Z H, v6 V! C& x" F
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