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[lastpost] => 2681484 预测市场平台 Kalshi 可继续推出与美国总统选举相关的合约投注（转） 1727995475 语文家庭作业
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[虚拟币交流]
随着全球刺激、美国大选和FTX支出的临近，比特币盯着几个顺风（转）
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分析师表示，比特币正在为今年最后几个月的潜在反弹做准备，有几项发展将为市场提供急需的提振。
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3 b0 D! K8 p3 j& C尽管周二伊朗对以色列发动导弹袭击后比特币下跌了4%，但比特币已从两周低点反弹，在跌至60300美元后攀升至61500美元以上。6 R/ i- F& q' W/ y
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此前，伊朗向以色列发射了180多枚弹道导弹，以报复以色列对黎巴嫩真主党阵地的袭击。据官方媒体报道，此次袭击标志着伊朗首次使用高超音速法塔赫导弹。4 I- ^: [4 {# } Z2 {
% w- H- [4 ~: Z0 P( @美国传统股票主要市场指数也下跌，纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.53%，标准普尔500指数下跌1.54%；P 500指数下跌0.93%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.41%。
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然而，K33 Research分析师Vetle Lunde和David Zimmerman表示，尽管投资者试图辨别中东紧张局势加剧对经济的影响，但仍有四个主要的顺势而为。
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他们在最近的一份投资者报告中写道，这些因素包括天朝激进的刺激措施、不断变化的美国宏观经济数据、即将到来的总统大选，以及FTX破产支付带来的流动性提振笔记星期二。
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天朝对全球流动性的提振! ?; T5 o" H1 A" Q) @$ P C
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分析人士表示，天朝最近采取的激进刺激措施预计将对全球流动性产生持续的积极影响。上个月，天朝人民银行推出了一系列降息措施，并推出了1420亿美元刺激计划 ；
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天朝的降息和财政刺激旨在避免经济衰退和刺激增长，这些举措通常会为比特币等投机性风险资产创造更有利的环境。! t$ `3 `, @- X) {1 ]6 g
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就业数据$ ?% [5 K0 d7 k$ B/ k- C: |
3 ?' z3 V& y# M- X8 K% F( @2 n定于周五发布的美国就业数据也有望在塑造短期市场情绪方面发挥作用。
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+ c( v, O, t3 _' \4 s! Z) W比特币与美国股市的相关性已达到多年高点，就业数据可能会影响利率预期，进而影响市场行为 ；% @- x8 U8 _& {4 _$ o
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随着投资者重新评估宏观经济形势，有利的就业前景可能会进一步提振比特币。% |) J. k! I2 R3 ~) P. i$ o1 \% o
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$ I! S9 k6 m* ^2 w' \美国总统大选是第三个因素 ；0 w" s3 M s1 }) n& X: [' o, j
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定于11月5日，市场分析师预计特朗普的胜利将成为比特币的积极催化剂，因为他近年来对比特币行业持更有利的立场 ；1 B0 V* _8 ?8 I% ?( L. ?* p
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相比之下，卡玛拉·哈里斯的胜利可能会导致短期的负面市场反应，因为她的ZF对数字资产的预期监管方式。
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, x" v2 C, r/ P9 z& B7 K) W& \5 ^Hashdex首席投资官Samir Kerbage表示：“市场不喜欢不确定性，对于像加密货币这样的新兴行业来说，11月选举的不确定性将是一个悬而未决的问题。”解密.( V9 }, H) u1 ~* b% S
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然而，无论谁获胜，加密货币都将进入“更有利的政策环境”，Kerbage补充道。这对长期以来一直呼吁美国制定更明确监管规则的行业参与者来说是个好消息。: `+ d* m9 z: O% g/ X* u T1 ]
1 }" y2 |; z( L8 `FTX债权人
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最后，Lunde和Zimmerman表示，FTX破产的预期支出预计将推动比特币的发展，债权人计划在第四季度末或第一季度初向加密货币市场注入约25亿美元。
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周二，一项重组破产加密货币交易所FTX的计划获得了其离岸平台FTX.com、CoinDesk 94%债权人的支持报道.: u) i" L* x. S+ t$ C
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该计划旨在将118%的债权以现金形式返还给大多数债权人，相当于约68.3亿美元的债权。在债权人批准后，该计划将提交破产法院确认，听证会定于10月7日举行。
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68.3亿美元的支出是更广泛分配的一部分。5月，FTX的破产财产宣布，债权人和客户预计将接收总赔偿金额在145亿美元至163亿美元之间，涵盖了FTX前平台的所有索赔。7 M4 T# `, D$ ?0 R `1 W g& S
9 R7 m. C: Q0 }" N+ ]( J, N8 P) j7 a分析师表示，无论如何，这些资产的清算预计将导致加密货币的大量回购，为比特币和其他数字资产提供流动性。" ~- |) J1 C3 P8 ]& G! R
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