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[lastpost] => 2689898 为何赵长鹏(CZ)等币圈巨头的「入狱风险」始终高悬不下？ 1731258430 天策-瑶娥
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% M& m* A! Q" x: D' v/ j干货——BTC挖矿电费成本到底是多少？
* Q" f* x; _/ F$ M很多人预言BTC在熊市不会跌破主流矿机的挖矿电费成本，包括著名BTC投资人李笑来。为什么这么说？可能有几方面原因：一是从历史经验来看，BTC确实没有跌破过主流电费成本。二是有一个逻辑就是，如果BTC价格一直跌，跌破主流矿机的挖矿成本，那么这些大矿场就会直接购买btc，这样对价格有一个支撑作用。那么既然明确了价格与挖矿成本存在这么一个关系，我们可以试着探讨电费成本问题。
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6 Y7 U2 e& ~" e- \一、要确定电费成本，首先要大致预估挖矿难度的变化值，这样可以基本确定挖矿需要的电力。因为在相同电价的条件下，电费成本主要由挖矿难度决定。8 Y9 r/ p; m& [( ?
BTC历史挖矿难度变动情况：
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很多人觉得熊市挖矿难度也会同步下降，但是sorry，即使在2018年这么大熊市，挖矿难度也增长了近2倍。（难度按照年初首次统计，年中基本呈波动上升状态）
: `2 H, ]( \" d- o好了，那么我们取难度涨幅最低的值1.6倍来测算2019年的难度，测算下来，每期难度平均上涨约4%。这是我们后面测算的假设前提。
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二、于是我们就得到了下面这个表。
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( B, E5 C, g8 h% G好了，很清楚了。第一档，家用电的小散，早就关机了。0 U0 \' V3 m" c
第二档，普通水电、常规托管电费的，挖矿暂时没亏，但是算上矿机成本也早已亏本。
\0 J$ W1 l) k' F; m第三档，老少边穷的风电、火电等，如果买矿机的基本也是保本状态，因为按照1台s15每年大约挖0.3个btc，需要3台矿机同时挖1年才能得到1个btc，而矿机的使用周期差不多2年。
( j8 T; q/ S5 W/ A" U4 U9 v) z+ h很多人还说有第4档，伊朗、乌克兰等0.1元甚至不要钱的电，请问有考虑ZZ、安全风险没，真的去的也是少数。呵呵。8 o# ~5 p+ _( {0 H
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三、那么又一个问题来了，大家都亏损或接近亏损，为啥还有人挖？原来有一群人矿机成本是很低的，比如极寒同学，他们在新疆的矿场，BTC成本肯定不到2万。所以所谓的主流矿机挖矿成本为什么可以基本刨去矿机成本？明白了没。
" V5 p4 a. t7 r: k$ z5 [当然，价格主要由供需决定，难度、算力都是随着价格波动。所以并不是说价格没有下降空间了，如果价格继续下降也是成立的。有什么疑问大家互相探讨。
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挖矿这个概念和虚拟币关联起来，我真是一点也弄不明白 |
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