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[lastpost] => 2785725 随着涨幅消失，卖方完全掌控市场，比特币崩盘加速（转） 1764769742 爱美的女人
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币的关键价格枢纽：8.5万美元支撑位还是9.3万美元突破位？（转）
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然而，85,000 美元的价位不仅仅是一个数字——它代表着心理和结构性意义的交汇。链上数据显示，短期 SOPR（支出产出利润率）为 1.01。
+ Q2 `! G# h3 H* n. w0 C1 i9 p9 ~3 k* h3 B' m) E
历史上，这是价格回调的前兆。# g7 ?+ R2 j) M8 q/ m' \* E5 J
此外，斐波那契回撤位和成交量分布表明，如果市场企稳，该区域可能吸引大量买家。成功守住该区域可能会引发反弹，目标价位为 93,000 美元；但如果未能守住，则可能再次测试 2025 年 4 月的低点 74,470 美元。
4 _+ k$ a ^' }+ Q! O% J随着市场持续下滑; z' @" w9 m' H) M7 E F8 u: A
.6 D& T' _2 R2 j$ T8 _% }
机构情绪：脆弱的复苏9 M, V2 n; y9 ^4 Y9 W. g! [4 G$ U5 K
尽管技术面描绘出一幅黯淡的景象，但机构投资者的情绪却呈现出截然不同的景象。11 月份比特币 ETF 资金流出量创下 37.9 亿美元的纪录。, ~3 ~% [" u: p2 U* P, g1 k% b9 F
k! p! [0 R* q4 z6 o最初发出投降的信号
3 x, t& _2 l- q; d然而，到11月下旬，却出现了7000万美元的净流入。) {' G; }5 W: g6 \3 \. [& B
暗示卖方已筋疲力竭+ ^$ |4 b' c' J+ o/ f: ^7 A
这一趋势在12月加速发展，富达的FBTC和贝莱德的IBIT相继问世。
: }4 B8 N( D% v" D" P5 {分别录得848万美元和2.384亿美元0 u+ L0 Z/ H* c2 l# _7 H, i
分别在流入量中。
! f2 c+ z3 {( |- K# b( Y( o主要参与者的战略举措进一步凸显了机构资本的重新进入。先锋集团和美国银行都采取了行动。8 v$ |/ ?" O$ ^* W' I- z
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扩大对数字资产的获取途径1 v! _4 a. u; v- Q
对客户而言，这预示着机构风险偏好可能发生转变。这些发展表明，尽管短期看跌情绪持续，但人们对比特币作为投资组合资产的长期效用依然充满信心。5 q. j+ ?2 D. b* w, g. Q0 D& P
情景分析及战略意义
6 E0 X! W, o" f93,000 美元的阻力位是一个关键转折点。突破这一门槛可能会重新点燃上涨势头，尤其是在机构 ETF 资金流入加速的情况下。相反，如果收盘价持续低于 85,000 美元，则可能会加剧回调，并测试 70,000 美元附近的流动性。( C) K% H8 o! P
0 J/ `! N+ [% U3 c$ p9 q2 e* b. P对于投资者而言，未来的发展方向取决于对两个变量的监控：
( p, \2 T, V- I9 G3 p1.ETF资金流动动态即使在技术面疲软的情况下，ETF资金流入的持续逆转也可能起到支撑作用。, E6 W* w3 h r5 [) @
2.链上指标:, H( a( e* k* L7 q' D7 X
, O% z0 i5 |6 V% TSOPR 跌破 1.0 或出现[激增]( B+ N9 e$ c Y* A" {8 r
未平仓合约量过高可能表明市场处于超卖状态。
& I" R+ ~5 [3 K& t, e% {* H结论：比特币的十字路口' w; e6 Q5 b7 H; P' T; C
比特币当前的价格转折反映了更广泛的市场十字路口。从技术层面来看，85,000 美元的支撑区域对空头而言是成败在此一举的关键时刻，而机构投资者的情绪则暗示着潜在的底部形成过程。投资者必须仔细权衡这些信号——短期波动可能持续，但机构投资者长期接受比特币的趋势依然稳固。在市场努力应对这两种力量的冲击时，耐心和自律至关重要。
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