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[lastpost] => 2689909 比特币在美联储新一轮降息中达到76849美元：未来预测？（转） 1731064305 mattf
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[虚拟币资讯]
比特币以 29,000 美元的价格继续盘整是回升吗？（BTC价格分析）
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自从创下 69,000 美元的历史新高以来，比特币的价格一直伴随着一个下降通道，这清楚地表明了一个看跌阶段。以下旨在调查和评估中短期可能出现的情况。
; W/ ?. U1 Y1 T; X技术分析
. _2 I o! `, K' s9 q每日图表- {; K8 P# E- |& z
价格现在在通道的中间趋势线上方盘整。2.86 万美元至 2.88 万美元的关键需求区域和通道的中线一直是比特币的可靠支撑。 d6 t& E7 N1 r' d9 Z
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另一方面，比特币的 RSI 两次未能突破其下降趋势线，目前正在寻求第三次突破。如果突破发生，将不可避免地再次飙升至 37,000 美元的阻力位。
; _+ H4 ?4 C1 w! a" u7 \3 r' |6 _' t4 小时图1 t) O s) [( l: g& J
价格在下降楔形模式内波动，如果上趋势线被打破，这通常被称为反转模式。另一方面，在较低的时间范围内，明显的 Wyckoff 积累阶段。价格经历了PS（初步供应）、SC（卖家高潮）、AR（自动反弹）、ST（二次测试），目前处于LPS（最后支撑点）阶段。
2 W8 k3 j: i- o' k/ \基于价格在重要需求区域内盘整并形成威科夫累积模式的事实，未来几天比特币更可能出现逆转，然后是中期攀升。 7 Q/ X" n1 m. d. c
& T( ?0 G* s5 e" y2 Z) [2 O情绪分析3 d4 c$ ?- S5 Y2 d. ]. c
比特币资金费率1 \- w1 \+ B) M$ l+ ~! d
过去几个月，比特币一直处于无情的下跌趋势中，从 2021 年 11 月的 6.9 万美元的历史高位回落，甚至跌破 3 万美元大关，这被许多市场参与者认为是重要的支撑。
& w: Z+ Q2 }* g% `: a: q4 [% b但这一水平未能保持，因为价格已跌破该水平并在过去几周一直在该水平交易。通常，价格底部与极端看跌情绪相关，如负融资利率值所示。
4 L" Y' e) X( J% O( g, u' w7 A4 k+ v然而，在最近的崩盘期间，融资利率一直在零附近波动，最近几天甚至回到了正值。这些值可能表明价格远未触底。这一盘整期可能是另一轮看跌之前的修正，因为市场仍远未达到熊市底部的极度恐惧和负面情绪。 + O- ]7 h R( Q$ a9 U
7 d; s2 e% i1 w8 p+ a4 {融资利率的显着负值可能导致大规模的空头挤压，类似于 2020 年 3 月和 2021 年 7 月的底部，并在中期引发新的看涨趋势。
; n+ ?" U. g" u q7 O7 I* B来源：金色财经 |
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