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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
6 U, w4 c8 f. _* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c# G. n' Y9 M/ c
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k; J$ _0 e7 Q9 R4 I
' H8 M& F& |3 `9 s; O7 `. R* WG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)2 C* I6 p" P3 V
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
% j% H: c9 t/ A M$ O: i( h; W+ h
0 P; H, ]7 q$ @& n4 t& s9 y& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h1 n$ ]) j, y! z' w9 q
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
, \" Q/ a. W% a7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
1 m* R# }. {/ L) A. Y) _- _ Y" M做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `$ e: F' `' p P% X F
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d, _ L/ m, O d; R% @- T
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n2 O- ]' y& H& w! H
# k" B5 _* ^8 r' Z
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 ! A; Y( X+ F9 J7 p
: Q- K7 X: t# e; T8 }
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
0 R7 e3 g4 P1 J$ v+ {0 v" i' J
, j5 p8 `" Y1 h(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 / {% a' T/ Q* P
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _; X" N% M, m- k+ ?" J u$ E% `. j
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
2 E( [; Q2 u, {: L# s% }5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
6 _+ R2 H9 f9 l( P- F" y( o5 fS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
& K0 e0 K; G6 H# U: a. u) |7 V: {0 f, e8 U6 b3 ^# Y. y/ x4 i
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
5 l% P, Q' v* w2 T% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s4 o, A$ w' j! |" v+ U
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 h' n- z8 l0 k& C5 |
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j3 d4 t6 @1 ?, J, h# }7 b& u% I- x
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \6 l3 J. w ?; w: E0 a* A
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
# }$ o7 M5 }9 {' ]% I1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
6 k, W' v C+ d% M: f! @! b& `( d. E5 ~
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
& \! z& p. n, O/ t! p: C) Z/ O
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
" B5 [1 L0 C: X" w8 }/ ~
( Z1 M# s; d8 J2 Z- d5 e1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 9 I, l- v; G7 _ d4 x+ g( b
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
& f; y2 Z q( v' }! B7 {) l4 n( Q$ [3 zS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T5 u" c4 X6 B, p8 @0 @7 f$ ^
7 d% J3 K% @& o; X5 l4 V
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j `1 @' p% X6 f/ S6 K+ Y0 p. q! h0 r
' ?( @- [6 f* b2 e) KS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; & U! F! ~1 B: v9 n* e0 p u) \/ w
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S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s! t7 N+ x. ~" l) X; P; G
; m' V% T, u, P% O/ ]6 G- o& u E3 N. D
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
9 {% o4 A1 B U2 d+ e, S6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
8 q" L# b2 ] KS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 # E' Y* L9 @' Q7 k
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
' f+ p5 F; v+ [& I( s(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
. Q( j( p: n# K0 ?+ p* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
4 H; ]& Z/ ?2 Z9 T2 a: A) s2 A好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
7 Y( O- }# m- d) q( ], k9 L T& t
5 A6 C8 v# n8 n( p& q4 jB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 " Y i, R: v/ r. A9 l P" H0 m9 F1 _
/ B" a7 P* J' F/ q( i- S; MF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
0 g" {. E$ `* F" x
/ C3 y$ _# G* i9 w于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
4 U0 o9 Q& H1 s0 x7 {2 \9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {8 I D" Q; k$ f m# P1 P
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M! f. N, N8 w( E; S& A
+ D$ n) P# X# M
; k6 M' c# K& a7 P' {9 q6 YG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
' A- w* \. \% {
8 C, z4 s* i0 q9 {9 {+ a4 [G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
6 c& l& K" c7 |8 {" P# L. r9 |
2 M6 X0 h( D! U. [ [当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \& j& {3 b, f5 W+ V
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i) g/ Y. ] }; ]. _4 A2 i
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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