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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。  }! D: }( y. l- w6 ]
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率9 Z9 e! |! k# a6 H1 N

. g$ K4 p2 k3 p" {以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?5 f* r8 a! a. v, F

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盈利可能性
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* t8 J, v, l9 B* w. g* W对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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6 l/ }7 l3 ?0 u5 |5 a增值
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: [) E! _: ~, M- E, o1 ]) B许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。: U& L0 x$ }. r/ w

5 J, O) B5 f% }( d# ?你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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1 n: ~$ V' J' \! T9 r/ V) Z* da) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么0 x' D! q2 O$ N) i  y! T1 }

: y. X. b; n. u& e3 X% W4 B, `40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
* @( Z+ h" R: v  }6 K( ?60%的机会你会一无所有
3 \4 ~2 e% }5 Q8 `) R8 M预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
0 g9 }; P" L5 S0 G1 r由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。/ q9 L; ^) c# L6 x( `. W$ ^7 r* e' [
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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( S7 D& n7 y( Z+ k+ @6 m, t基于增值的投注! i. m  R$ _: Z* Q) N

9 e5 R# o3 I& F6 F- S2 B凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。# M/ @' z5 }. r
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1). G( D) g; c9 i- J; Z& v2 c* d
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A=博彩资金
' p& `. k9 g6 ^P=获胜机会$ [' ?" j( d& c$ G5 ?& c* i! M6 h) S  k
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)9 a+ k6 l3 w% O% H
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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$ Y! l& o. W: C  X好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。- T$ O( O( z  k7 g

4 E3 Q* U0 X! t( g0 v1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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+ j) @8 P1 V4 w$ e5 R; ZA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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- q3 w- c5 w& l* U" @; c5 wA=0/ f5 b: F/ o* F

% w6 h5 a, ~7 U1 |0 _- P0 U结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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: n8 u5 z, W. G. ^A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)1 Q5 i6 I4 Y% _5 g+ D% b
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A=0.1, T6 U5 @5 }2 [5 @; n8 ]. t( P( R

4 m/ @. v. u7 e; A8 \- N结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去/ t/ `: [. z& O% O! Q$ @; _" m1 }

4 l0 o5 \# \' {1 m7 ]* @3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)4 K0 t+ y+ \6 n# A

& X  b1 r9 O6 K- N$ l& N9 gA= -0.2
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  R+ L* D% N  s结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好# {" j" j/ [8 I$ e* m5 I7 ^8 K

. m: v& Q2 O6 O/ w- O第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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