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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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' T9 I$ u$ g+ T6 X0 j: u6 {  W只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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. ?# @/ c- H+ O- _8 R& I三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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+ k. \& s3 i( }8 t- g6 ~3 \8 o方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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' f' e$ d3 g- [9 Q% f4 i然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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( q# o' O0 L3 r& t/ n: Y6 }, O6 m当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目4 ^# Y( `8 w) v* n8 C) B
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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. G2 ^2 J" c2 }3 C5 O# C但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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/ F$ P! P* Y& @3 I% p6 F+ a( c理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。$ @8 F6 R4 x1 |( j* [3 }

' N& [0 H2 [9 t; B排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，* \3 a! b; h3 |- y1 J" y
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，$ i0 x. ?- k8 ?. G4 Y6 R# v

4 b. C! X7 X0 Z! B. O" h5 v1 d这比买国债存银行合算。8 y, |: [3 i% G. O
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，. |5 X1 l: @" q2 Q1 ]
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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