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[体育菠菜心得方法] 介绍一个经验赔率公式〔英格兰足球联赛〕及其投注策略
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简介:取球队的近六场净胜球为标准,令R=主队净胜球-客队净胜球5 j1 H2 H, c4 _: y7 u4 ]
统计1993/94赛季-2000/01赛季,英格兰足球联赛〔四个级别〕的所有14002场比赛,可得出经验赔率公式:
4 Z& e8 J0 P7 _& T7 r主场胜概率y=1.56R+46.475 e  n- s; p( ^! D
主场和概率y=0.03R*R-1.27R+23.65" T  R% |- A- b% B! a
主场负概率y=-0.03R*R-0.29R+29.48
; k, r/ O! q+ g2 I6 H

以本期足彩维冈 VS 纽卡斯尔为例,近六轮维冈净胜球为2,纽卡为0,则R=26 W* X$ a# ~6 I6 F# I0 A
得到胜负平概率 49.59 21.23 28.78
# j- C! j, e" M+ o0 x+ B9 J" G以90返还率计算,得到赔率 1.815/ 4.239/ 3.127 对比开盘赔率,可看出,主队被严重低估2 ]" B- ?& h# t
威廉希尔 interwetten 立博 SSP
9 t, q$ E  f' [6 ^4 H2 X* c6 C4 b2.62 2.90 2.50 2.50 3.00 2.50 2.50 3.20 2.50 2.26 3.26 2.84

这个公式经过2001/02赛季,英格兰足球联赛〔四个级别〕的所有1746场比赛比赛验证,可得出获利的结果。

再介绍根据这个公式的博彩策略:以计算出的主胜概率为基准,若实际开盘概率低〔即球队实力被低估〕,则投注于主胜的标盘一个单位〔即均注〕.01-02赛季1746场比赛,共有526场符合投注条件,可获利2.15%。若选择R在-5到5之间的比赛,则可选择330场,获利5.35%;R在-2到2,171场,获利10.13%;R在-10到10,获利3.56%。

显然,R范围越小,该公式越精确。推荐使用范围为-5到5。不奢望有心人总结出意/德/西/法等国的规律,只希望有人会长期跟踪这个公式。

ps:国外投资者研究投注策略,按照一定标准选择比赛,并全部投注,扣除抽水,存取款,所得税〔如果有〕,获利为正值,即认为是成功的博彩策略。- S5 u( f* j/ p  V" y7 x& y( h. K

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