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[虚拟币交流]
华尔街顶级量化机构 Jump Trading 杀入预测市场，散户时代结束了？（转）
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# \& \7 m. k0 ~3 A据彭博社报道，全球顶级量化交易公司 Jump Trading 将通过向两大头部预测市场平台 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 提供流动性，换取少量股权。
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: [% Z0 p( w8 U& C( U/ ~据悉，其与 Kalshi 的协议涉及固定股权份额，而在 Polymarket 的持股将随其在美国业务提供的交易容量动态增长。
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对于 Jump Trading 而言，这笔股权潜在价值不菲。此前报道称，Kalshi 估值约 110 亿美元，Polymarket 约 90 亿美元，且赛道仍在高速扩张。4 \0 m' E V5 ?/ c
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Jump 或将动用其超过 20 人的专属团队，提供专业做市服务，以提升平台交易体验并捕获长期潜在收益。1 Z* I+ G. L+ Y1 |- b
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1、预测市场的流动性瓶颈
/ @# h3 g7 b/ j一直以来，流动性是预测市场增长的关键瓶颈。0 ~9 t. U9 c8 ]
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Kalshi 和 Polymarket 作为当前两大头部玩家，在早期阶段都面临类似挑战：热门事件期间交易量激增，但非热门合约往往深度浅薄、价差较大，用户大额挂单容易出现显著滑点，甚至难以成交。
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: o4 ]0 V! W0 [5 Z, ?3 a其中，Kalshi 在 2024 年引入专业机构 Susquehanna International Group （SIG）作为其主要机构做市商。" z0 N j7 U2 P3 X' A
$ m+ Y" q8 N. o8 `SIG 设立了专注事件合约的交易部门，其作为老牌期权巨头具备专业算法和持续挂单能力，让 Kalshi 的交易体验明显改善，尤其在体育和经济数据类合约上表现突出。
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除此之外，Kalshi 还通过内部关联交易实体提供部分对侧流动性，以稳定定价和填补空缺。: u7 L9 J- o! S* A* g
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同时，平台推出流动性激励计划，向合格参与者发放现金奖励、降低手续费并放宽仓位限制，进一步吸引算法玩家和大户。9 a$ S. K! t- \6 c& L3 `. B9 @" n, M
% F$ u/ S8 z! c" j1 ^- MPolymarket 的情况则更具加密原生特征。作为基于 Polygon 的链上订单簿平台，它早期主要依靠去中心化的激励机制聚集流动性。
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官方文档称，该平台通过 Maker Rebates 程序每天以 USDC 形式返还部分手续费，吸引自动化做市机器人和独立流动性提供者。这些算法玩家在新市场或热门合约上积极挂单，赚取价差和返还收益。3 R) a+ i1 W6 |1 q: T
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不过这种模式也带来碎片化和不稳定性，比如当事件热度消退时，做市机器人主动撤单，导致价差迅速扩大，深度也随即快速萎缩。
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3 c& m. P. U) d7 S此外，Polymarket 还尝试过内部做市团队和社区驱动的 LP 机制，但整体而言，其流动性呈现出爆款事件深度充足，平时则依赖散户和算法的短期逐利行为。1 K) F7 a3 r; h$ I
# K( L0 B9 J8 M1 N c8 _两大平台在这一阶段的共同点在于，流动性高度依赖少数关键参与者和激励驱动的散户力量。 |
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Jump 这波介入，感觉预测市场以后更卷了，小散得谨慎点 |
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量化大佬下场，散户还怎么玩？这波感觉要被割得更狠了... |
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Jump Trading这种巨头进来做市，以后预测市场的小散怕是更难玩了 |
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