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[lastpost] => 2796252 Michael Saylor 信号策略可能买入更多比特币（转） 1768193290 垂钓园
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7358 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。
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2 a$ Q4 X% ~' U9 d1 } S值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。
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然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。! h2 I/ A& H6 _
5 U& ~* h" I6 C$ j宏观信号依然支持
" l b( L5 P& W& n$ g) j. m* [美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。$ E5 F4 A$ t. K( s8 u0 s r
0 _9 e# S7 Q# ]该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。
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从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。
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市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.% C+ f- @- b# T9 f+ ~3 m9 f
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这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。: E' U" c# L+ [, U0 _
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著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。
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1 Q/ {5 d* g& k; \2 H- c \9 r6 N R他补充道，1 j+ l' P/ m( Z7 {: I5 Q
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“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。”% B7 |6 D; y1 J- v+ A/ O( G
3 P. k4 {* E2 s0 S! C2 q7 {; m) D% G韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。
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他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。. u- B( s" W3 k' j$ t Y; O: y; V
' f( @7 ^+ m5 R亚洲比特币市场再度走强
' t7 f; Y1 t, F亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.0 `$ e/ v a F
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此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。 p: L* L* Z6 Z0 [! K) l$ f
% W5 v( W9 I: a7 s1 [相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。% T9 [4 n* h a9 \4 |
, h6 d5 _* P% B/ S5 Y) d) F然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 16672 小时
本月在线: 237 小时
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13634 小时
本月在线: 23 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19584 小时
本月在线: 32 小时
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当前离线
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天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 10379 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 214 小时
本月在线: 7 小时
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当前离线
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天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4841 小时
本月在线: 6 小时
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当前离线
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天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3030 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 97 小时
本月在线: 5 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 18270 小时
本月在线: 7 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 214 小时
本月在线: 7 小时
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这种行情，我还是宁愿相信宏观信号，继续看涨比特币。 |
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