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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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: B/ H. w9 C0 G+ n# @( d8 _! k/ R 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。/ ~3 Z" i: ^ f9 g/ B
+ H- J# d' L$ q8 O7 f( G 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。4 Q; j: }: u1 [+ E
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) u# h y) E% L 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。( V V5 k; T2 h, ]$ ^
5 h' w$ i2 t: L1 T1 u. d0 P6 j 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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" O5 U: L% v8 C: C* v 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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% [( k, L! T5 W0 t# Q6 s. L# _; s) ?9 L价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。7 Q* @3 m" H. A8 c- `9 T
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间& x K! u/ F: ]6 G0 [3 U2 b7 b
$ V' i$ ]; n: [6 x; a$ G0 J框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”- i7 }, g& w' v/ w7 u
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在5 l, g# l3 _ M3 E' s9 O
$ D. g5 z2 X; n v; {积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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4 |1 m- l$ d3 B, E5 Y 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势- \- D: H& F: s, s& ?8 N; p
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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s' F* z8 S/ {3 g3 D: W# A 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。5 i' r+ N2 O- e1 [
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，( L* Y1 d# T4 \- v7 i1 M0 M, \
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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