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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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6 Q0 ^" N% O. V2 w: k- c ]过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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' q& X: b q: oPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。2 }1 I! ~/ z+ x5 w" {
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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6 C( v K# o/ B/ i: Q- r; u2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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& l% c8 B9 @. c4 a( WETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。# ~2 p( C! V0 C5 F3 U& O! q
. I! y) U" A7 A* |( v& `" S比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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6 s2 I- ?9 v- T# G) n随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。, U+ \+ @! C" E J, \5 U6 ^3 m
8 ?7 {+ _* m* `: r5 n# _* i8 Y3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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ETH:
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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0 V- X; T4 `, X: O' q9 [BTC:1 q! J/ h, J, k. K' A4 o c
+ x9 x4 V- D- k x6 h尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。; _- O7 p5 u+ Q, _$ h7 O
& j3 ~4 B/ ]1 U" w如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。: C# \4 L- W3 \+ N: Q
* W" @4 p) F% aSOL与XRP:0 {, r! X3 n% i: x
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。" a( O0 a- y k3 n8 C
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。# _" L' Q! ~, F2 y; h9 S1 u7 w
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其他热点项目:
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+ M( Z+ S4 @, i. D. k涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。* v) w* x0 m+ F$ f t0 a
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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. r9 X5 m1 J( q6 [4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。$ j9 w/ d$ l/ l$ u) C/ z
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。, k/ p+ _/ F/ {3 @* ~
9 {4 T1 J% M9 ]0 x5 s0 a新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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# b, |2 A3 k: W% t. _. y4 [市场展望0 A3 X/ h# n& O
+ x/ |# F. X- _4 f随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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当前离线
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