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[lastpost] => 2796758 比特币:为什么机构而非散户将决定比特币的下一步走势(转) 1768304877 人生如赌
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当前离线
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势) J \% W6 [6 U( {+ Z
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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! O0 I' P t0 a/ C9 Q& [9 |; VPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。+ b: b, y# B* Q6 Y& Y, H
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;3 F+ n* R( u9 Y: A, N, d! A- e
7 i4 s0 \ [9 S) l* Q
ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。& M( E& }" C, m% L3 ?
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比特币价值回归:
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% d' D8 @- V% X l市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。/ `2 D1 P' D2 j @9 X0 m
2 ~0 \, D4 x1 b6 Q% d1 l9 j: Z. H随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。# d5 E& a# ^1 o/ s
: J& J- c3 P& i. C( B加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。3 k1 r6 o6 w) ?% j5 ?9 b2 R% H
8 n# {8 B/ }' O# ]3. 市场热点与反弹情况. b6 v, ?; `. V3 s0 G5 v
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ETH:- a- i3 G/ m, `% s4 c
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。2 r+ l# S) }1 g9 A
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BTC:: \% b) v. s, P, y' `" o
: V) `) a/ ]9 N1 T4 A尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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; _) u) G) {; z* ~7 _如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:, u1 x4 B" d# S" W j! h
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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9 O, Z& {" E4 Y/ ], F2 pXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
! H% v; m3 J+ i* P
F- [& j8 N* G# W8 k0 ]+ Q其他热点项目:' q* n: _6 ^( ]" i
6 o( H9 Q% J' V" M: n- ~, ?$ ?/ R% r) o# U涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。/ ]& M" T8 A, `2 a* y3 F2 E
7 m) s. I% X6 f* G# L4 h4. AI赛道与新兴项目0 l0 h8 u' l" |2 ~- p
7 h6 s' C) E8 _
AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。5 d- J5 A) x1 }, y
+ j# e& @+ d; W6 P6 r0 M
蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。8 E' _! A$ q% U' C* R
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望
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. Z X+ _# t9 I5 Q: _" r7 }随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。, U. b6 |3 i! H/ W* K! s: z2 H
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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