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28日,Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC分析师Ben Carlson撰写了一篇题为《Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin?》的文章,认为很多人现在开始跃跃欲试比特币投资,往往是因为价格已经大幅上涨,受FOMO情绪所左右,形成了盲目追涨的心理。
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他建议,投资者在考虑加密货币时,应该问自己为什么现在要进入市场,保持冷静,理性判断,不要仅仅因为价格已经上涨而盲目跟风。
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“我可以计算天体的运动,但无法计算人类的疯狂”: }$ m) l2 h( T5 [ w( \
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近日比特币暴涨,投资者受FOMO情绪驱动,开始怀疑自己是否错过了这一波上涨行情。" F ^# {0 w' }5 o- H% _. j( T' ]3 P
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对此,Carlson表示,盲目跟风带来的投资决策可能会带来巨大的风险,正如历史上许多著名投资者的遭遇所警示的那样——即使是像艾萨克·牛顿这样的一代科学巨匠,也未能逃脱投资中的情绪陷阱。
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0 U1 ]$ F" ~" k' b1712年,英国南海公司的股票在短时间内暴涨。数学家、物理学家和天文学家牛顿在第一次投资南海公司股票时小赚了一笔,尝到了甜头后,他再次投入了更多的资金,直到泡沫破裂。
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最终,他在南海泡沫中损失了10000至20000英镑,约合今天的2000万英镑。牛顿当时深感悔恨,并曾言:
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> “我可以计算天体的运动,但无法计算人类的疯狂。”7 }! ^" r* V; M# C8 r G& V
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牛顿的南海公司投资不仅仅是一个金融泡沫的故事,也反映了人类在面对市场情绪时的脆弱性。在牛顿之后的几个世纪里,类似的情形屡见不鲜,尤其是在股市、房地产和其他高风险投资领域。每一次的市场暴涨,背后往往都隐藏着不理性的泡沫。
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保持冷静、理性判断,避免FOMO心理主导决策
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Carlson指出,比特币的价格上涨已经吸引了大量投资者的关注,但投资者需要理性思考,审视自己进入市场的动机。很多人现在才对比特币产生兴趣,往往是因为价格已经大幅上涨,形成了盲目追涨的心理。
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这种行为,往往会让投资者陷入“追涨杀跌”的恶性循环。比特币的价格可能继续上涨,但也可能因为市场调整而暴跌。
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他认为,投资比特币这样的高风险资产,虽然可能带来丰厚的回报,但同样也充满了不确定性。与其依赖FOMO驱动的冲动决策,不如采取理性、稳健的策略,不被市场的短期波动所左右。毕竟,历史上,许多伟大的投资者正是因为过度依赖情绪和市场的短期走势,才导致了无法承受的损失。! J2 `( g' Z S# x( H8 t6 Y
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对于现在考虑投资比特币的投资者,Carlson提出警告:如果你现在才决定进入市场,可能只是因为价格的暴涨和FOMO心理所致。这种情绪驱动的投资,往往难以持续。. l; }% z5 z7 N( Y: e0 ^9 }2 z
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