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[lastpost] => 2688723 美国2024年大选已花费147亿美元，或为史上最贵 1730688420 比推快讯
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灰度8月研报：若美元疲软和利率持续走低，将利好比特币
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比推消息，Grayscale Research 发布 8 月市场研报：2024 年 8 月全球市场的整体平稳掩盖了月内的大幅波动。8 月 2 日就业报告弱于预期后，许多风险资产价格下跌，波动性飙升，CBOE 波动率 (VIX) 指数一度超过 65%。但随后的经济数据并未显示出进一步的危险迹象，多个细分市场出现反弹，VIX 指数迅速回落至 20% 以下。与此同时，劳动力市场状况疲软的消息可能影响了美联储政策制定者的观点。8 月 23 日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年度会议上发表讲话时表示，降息的时机已经到来，部分反映了就业下行风险增加的事实。利率期货现在暗示央行将在今年剩余的三场联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议上将政策利率降低 100 个基点 (bp)
Grayscale Research 认为，美元疲软和利率下降如果持续下去，应该对比特币的估值有利。美国较低的利率会削弱美元的竞争优势，并可能使与美元竞争的资产受益，包括其他法定货币、实物黄金和比特币。以太坊在 8 月初的下跌中表现明显不佳，投机头寸的过剩导致了以太坊价格的大幅回调，并限制了此后价格的复苏。更根本的是，以太坊网络正在经历重大转变，这可能会给一些投资者带来对其未来的不确定性。以太坊打算通过将更多交易转移到第 2 层网络来实现更大的规模，然后这些交易将定期结算到第 1 层主网。活动向第 2 层的过渡也导致第 1 层的费用收入降低，这反过来又对以太坊的价值产生潜在影响。Grayscale Research 认为，鉴于扩容策略显然正在发挥作用，当前市场对以太坊的悲观情绪是没有根据的。但市场共识可能需要一段时间才能变得更加积极。
稳定币市值在 8 月份再次上升，目前已接近之前的历史新高。Grayscale Research 认为，来自德国政府、Mt Gox 地产和其他机构的抛售压力已基本过去，基本面的改善应该会越来越明显。如果美国劳动力市场保持稳定，美联储降息和围绕加密行业的美国政治转变可能会让价格在今年晚些时候重新测试历史高点。估值的主要下行风险是失业率进一步上升以及可能出现的经济衰退。因此，投资者应仔细关注即将发布的劳动力市场数据，包括定于 9 月 6 日发布的下一份月度就业报告。Grayscale Research 认为货币和财政政策缺乏纪律性是一些投资者选择投资比特币的原因之一。因此，经济疲软时期可能会强化比特币的长期投资论点。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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