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[lastpost] => 2646864 拜登vs比特币:2024年美国大选临近,一切都岌岌可危(转) 1714666927 gkfbuw
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币在飙升至创纪录水平后正处于“暴力”走势的边缘(转)
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天朝区块链网讯:在本周极速冲向历史新高之后,对期权的需求飙升似乎使比特币在另一次抛物线上涨或剧烈暴跌的边缘摇摇欲坠。! `# ?+ G+ S: d, \4 L& x+ c) Y* V1 E
自上周五以来,比特币已上涨约 20%。对持有该代币的美国交易所交易基金的需求似乎无穷无尽,交易员们纷纷押注,新冠疫情期间创下的近 69,000 美元的创纪录价格很快就会被超越。周五,比特币基本没有变化,约为 62,000 美元。
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数字资产管理公司 CoinShares 的研究助理卢克·诺兰 (Luke Nolan) 表示:“所有事情都表明,如果势头让我们继续上涨,那么我们可能会看到另一次猛烈的上涨。”但即使 ETF 流量的微小变化也可能导致人们迅速去杠杆化,“这是双向的,”他说。
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短期期权买家的涌入使比特币的波动性升至去年加密货币友好型硅谷银行倒闭以来的最高水平。 Amberdata 的数据显示,3 月 29 日的看涨期权和看跌期权合约的名义价值已攀升至 70 亿美元左右,远高于特定到期日的任何其他合约的金额。
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执行价格在相对较小范围内的短期期权的上涨为所谓的伽马挤压奠定了基础,在伽马挤压中,价格的变化可能引发市场的快速波动。根据 Deribit 的数据,3 月 29 日到期日的合约未平仓合约集中在 65,000 美元、60,000 美元和 70,000 美元,距离当前现货市场价格不远。
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) M1 ^( Z2 X' d+ m0 @/ o; U) G' l- o“我们仍然可以看到大量的 OTM(没钱)电话,”诺兰说。 “如果比特币升至接近这一水平,那么我认为我们肯定会受到挤压。”3 T4 O S' c/ w$ ?2 A
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如果买入大量看涨期权,期权的卖方(通常是交易商或做市商)需要对冲其风险敞口。诺兰说,对冲的通常方法是购买基础工具,这样它们就不会面临方向性风险。如果比特币开始上涨,交易商将不得不进一步对冲,从而购买更多的基础代币。- o6 J1 o! U5 i+ s8 K O
2 ^; I: a% m# Q% B“这种自我延续的循环可能会导致价格快速上涨,因为经销商推高价格,导致他们不得不购买更多产品,”诺兰说。
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虽然 ETF 一直在推动涨势,但加密货币衍生品一直是抛物线走势的主要催化剂。鉴于期货和期权的资本效率以及无需处理直接持有加密货币相关风险的便利性,机构投资者和散户投资者都依赖期货和期权。, f* H# l. Q7 f, G
4 i0 v" p3 I$ \) YDeribit 是最大的加密货币期权交易所之一,周四多个类别均创下历史新高。期权未平仓合约总额为 270 亿美元,24 小时交易量为 124 亿美元。
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7 `: A8 L5 C( b. ADeribit 首席商务官 Luuk Strijers 表示:“在过去的几天里,我们观察到比特币看涨期权的显着活动,特别是在 60K 至 70K 范围内,并伴有明显的看涨期权偏差。” “由于特别是短期波动性仍然较高,我们预计尽管可能会出现动荡,但对上行的需求仍将持续。”
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$ x1 F R) E+ x如果数字资产下跌,比特币期货可能会增加更多的下行压力,因为交易者一直在通过此类衍生品积累杠杆多头头寸。这使得比特币感知期货的融资利率(杠杆的关键指标之一)在过去几天大幅上涨。在周三比特币抛物线上涨之前,该衍生品出现了大量空头清算。
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