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[lastpost] => 2775448 比特币的估值和市场时机：长期投资者的视角（转） 1761047673 人生如赌
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人们一般认为，在2140年之前，比特币的总量将被开采完。这是因为比特币的发行有一个上限，) p: A: [' W7 n3 Z1 U
# e/ w8 ?& ?4 q: C/ w9 y5 d' p, g即总共可以开采到2100万个比特币。随着奖励减半，比特币的挖矿奖励也会越来越小，直到最终减
" U8 B/ `2 g' [0 P3 y
3 C, n5 \% l8 b, J$ Q- E到1聪。一聪相当于0.00000001比特币，是比特币的最小面值，且不能减半。由于一聪是最小面值且5 a# X8 b" O. ^6 J# }! c+ Q7 d# h* w
$ P4 ~3 x/ r* j
不能减半，因此在比特币总量接近2100万之前，1聪可能会一直作为奖励存在。这可能延续到2140年8 u3 Q6 g' T4 ^- \- \( v
' n8 G Y ?: D+ f c' M2 a之后，当比特币的总量接近极限时，可能会存在数百万聪的奖励。——但由于一聪是比特币的最小面- l; {0 h: I8 K. m# b* ~4 I- R0 S
/ ]0 k: H) m+ R: \: N; o4 O& l) q值，其价值可能不足以相当于1比特币。) f- x8 R M, E b( W0 E
% d: P; t3 L$ H" s2009年，开采链上每个区块的奖励是50个比特币。第一次减半后是25个，然后是12.5个，然后截至
4 _, J. \, u1 j# o" ?1 |& Y3 {; X7 M- _% B
2020年5月11日变成每个区块6.25个比特币。下一次减半预计将于2024年4月22日21:13:24 UTC发生，) i: G; ?. B2 _! a! U
: M U0 S7 F6 t% ?8 G U届时区块奖励将减少至3.125 BTC。% F3 _5 z7 r9 i8 V2 _2 D) S" O+ a, w
0 ?6 G* r9 f3 L7 W% F
这也就是为什么比特币减半对其网络会产生重大影响。对于矿工来说，减半事件可能会导致他们的队
) \0 u& b( U- U" c) @ z) H# j# J5 f/ _% U- c( ^6 Z8 G8 `
伍整合，因为个别矿工和小型公司可能会退出采矿生态系统，或有更大的参与者接管。$ H4 q/ ~2 U# [; L7 m# m# r
: {. H: L1 }& m' Z. L' r' ^# X5 W- k% y
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