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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人' l0 X) ]0 D, `* f0 I8 {: Z
1 s$ T+ K9 A" m
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，: r% x8 A1 e/ b8 x! }; P S, b
- j1 u1 A* j. ^: [+ B而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富0 I) J0 F& L+ [* e' e. R, d
* N- A) C/ z+ O) ?5 b的千禧一代。8 p) O/ k. q- \9 a: A! D; ^% h
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
# w+ U$ T1 X& q2 H/ j* v1 n1 z! z% v2 D! y
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
1 L" P! V+ J' T+ w5 F' Q( y' ] R1 T, z
. O, W0 ?+ J/ }) {4 A& {- B 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
7 p6 W# v4 _: a2 \+ e# Q* o
; M. A/ D1 n" R& X1 r1 i8 U. |5 U密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据1 h8 k2 L0 h$ o: H
, u: G) i; i1 @; O. |
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
2 d2 s) W% a2 k% ?" |$ N$ J: }
& g5 Y4 ^9 c8 B的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
* M0 N* Y; E, n3 P( x. N1 o* Y0 @, {; x# E& Y* U) _
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；: {6 a7 X/ o: z5 u
: e ~$ u, X' w' @10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为0 Y% }" v6 {$ |0 O6 ?
) y# J7 [" c9 |+ O9 h" _
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
, w2 c h4 r! z: d* e% i
' f8 z6 t9 f8 }, @$ A据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降- f; ~' z' N s" O" `
5 D' C: X6 K4 j- { i5 K息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
% P3 v6 F* N, y$ v9 W& L8 N+ j9 _" k
1 P8 }& t" v$ L; A: V与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
; F5 c! M, P; z% h" l5 e5 P6 F+ v# O6 \* ]1 S
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富9 b0 Z1 O Q* [% H
, i' G5 F1 t( L! m8 _ H* V传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不; w) ?: j9 r$ S% o+ }/ l( s! s
8 r2 _! v( Y# ^; J: Q
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
, C" |: _1 Q l9 s3 l) x5 C+ q4 {* P
# Q" P( s' @( k* A' k代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
; z0 i- Q- W! R! v. c# ~# T/ N; |- D5 z1 L9 E
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体9 k# G- R" b2 C8 Z& Y1 t
0 H+ u9 K* _' `* n% I+ n系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货+ ~4 o, T$ K2 ?0 s: ~5 E- ^
3 o" c" p7 ~0 d2 f币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
; Q# I4 p$ [7 ~# B
* |/ U1 ?* A: m未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富" Q g+ }) P2 y: g1 H; R: l- {0 [
. ~9 E9 _4 Y$ ] f8 F* t/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
+ A" {$ n* W+ C' b' s; q T h y4 X2 t, p; [! u/ g
% E, j/ S8 V2 y$ B/ ?. W9 ~, m
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