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[打法交流]
赌运亨通 21点是怎么样的赌戏？赌魔戴子郎【1】（转载）
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什么是DB？什么是投资？重要吗？2 _. D L; Q7 {& H) c( J/ s
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投资学原理定义合理预期平均输的是DB，合理预期平均获利的是投资。买彩券可能中大奖。买股票有（许多）人赔大钱，赚赔的结果不表示是DB或投资。ZF对彩券抽重税，买彩券中大奖机会与被闪电打到差不多，买彩券显然合理预期平均亏本。经济成长买股票长期平均应该会赚，因此股票是投资。
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& i' g; j/ f& y如果你（用算牌）「玩」21点平均赢钱，你其实是在投资！为什么把玩21点当投资那么重要？因为DB与投资适用不同的心法、原则。DB讲求集中风险，以震盪增加获胜机会（但胜算仍低于五成）。而投资则是「鸡蛋不放一篮中」。分散风险以时间换取低风险长期利润。态度不同，结果大不同。- c# o# u- z* d9 ?+ n, J" _
- { r5 Q7 s$ p" Q: ?/ C: {2 l例如你拿一万元赌本面对负百分之二的赌局，集中赌一把你有百分之四十九的机会赢1万元，百分之五十一输1万元。若分散成10把每把下1000元，一样是下1万元平均输200元10把后赢钱的机会只剩四成。3 [+ |$ V" j( Y6 `0 D
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相对一样拿1万元投资正期望值百分之二的投资机会，一把下去胜算百分之五十一，分10把胜算增加为六成。DB不应该分散下注，投资应该。确认你自己在做什么（DB还是投资？）影响下注方式（分散或集中）进而影响结果，不可轻忽。
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统计学已证明在大部分情形下，21点可以用算牌平均击败，因此21点是投资，应该分散风险（凯利下注法）依预期获利率下注。
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! P5 Y* z; j* x; Q3 E) L21点作为一项投资，是什么样的投资？Don Schleisinger曾任Morgan Stanley高级主管，他也是21点专家著有《Blackjack Attack》一书。他计算4万美元算牌客若赌场容许跳注，用凯利合理下注一年可以获利3倍，比一般正常投资获利高。
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6 A2 q2 W$ o# E一年获利3倍而风险其实不高（依一凯利下注本钱加倍钱输光的风险低于八成七），21点可以说是一个非常好的投资。2 B1 F4 N7 M5 v7 _- ], x( |
9 y; T* x. b5 j9 d- T* V为什么21点的投资报酬率那么高？赌场为什么会提供这样一个对自己不利的赌戏？. d& O; ^' V# j {* b! e
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