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冷风说币：上涨乏力 反弹是否到此结束？2022.06.27
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市场消息
旧金山联储主席戴利(Mary Daly)当地时间周五表示：“7月加息75个基点是我目前的预测幅度，因为我认为这是我们目前必须要做的。”
从目前的情况来看，美联储7月份加息75个点应该是个大概率事件，美联储将保留了75个节点继续加息的这么一种态度，然后观察市场的反应，以及通货膨胀的后续走势。当然在采取如此幅度加息前，必要的吹风模式还是非常必要的，这是美联储一贯使用的手法。
因为上周五公布的消费者信心指数好于市场预期，导致了美国股市大幅反弹，消息面上，也有一些分析认为美国可能通货膨胀会提前见顶。这些想法其实都是美好的，都是带着幻想的！
截至目前，引发美国国内通货膨胀的因素并没有太大的改变，比如超发的货币供应控制、紊乱的供应链复苏、失控的俄乌冲突导致的大宗商品价格、糟糕的疫情蔓延等等。
当然美联储如果在七月份继续加息75个基点，八月、九月考虑加息50个基点以上，甚至不排除单次加息100个基点以上，这种持续的大力度加息，美国经济究竟能否扛得住？会不会造成紧急刹车之后的休克效应？美国经济还能扛得住吗？这是一个问号。
美联储加息仅仅是遏制了大众商品的上涨的一种手段，更多的还取决于美联储货币政策直接控制之外的一些因素，包括联邦政府的财政赤字政策、疫情应对措施……
总结来讲，美国经济面临的问题，美联储加息只能解决部分通胀问题，更多的控制政策需要美国政府去做，否则就算加息加到天上，美联储也不一定能遏制40年一遇的高通胀。所以后续市场的博弈，我们还需要更加紧密观察！
行情分析
BTC短线支撑20500-20800美元，短线压力21500-22000美元。大饼几次反弹都没有突破22000美元的压力，如果久攻不过，很可能让多方势气受损。因此大家还是要开始小心变盘为好，今日操作上以高空为主。个人还是强调19800-19200美元支撑区间的重要性。
ETH短线支撑1130-1180美元，短线压力1280-1300美元。以太坊的走势略强于大饼，但经过多日反弹，多方也是消耗较大，如果大饼回踩，以太大概率也会下跌，因此也是要以高空为主。主流币跟随大饼波动，按照大饼节奏操作。
山寨币三个原则，大饼稳，板块热，龙头强。冷风认为山寨币炒作有二点，一是大饼要稳。二是要抓住主线。冷风一再强调，存量资金搏弈，局部式行情，而这局部就是山寨币。 今日大饼，以太都有点回踩迹象，因此山寨币多单也要适当减少，等待大饼回踩后再进场最好。 来源：金色财经 |
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