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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。/ D: V9 z7 v% J0 Y# b4 @
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在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。: \/ u& A2 |4 v" [/ O! x9 N( U, @
* h# O5 T* r+ q% I比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”
Z/ \5 }3 P4 \Venturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。& C2 S. N4 H: V' ~1 b; L/ G
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就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。! q6 d( h& G/ T% k
7 _7 ?3 @' I& R) @7 D# a9 j“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：
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“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”, |/ P% e' Y# l" c
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这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。6 ~: D( w, i6 t/ }3 Y& r) c
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即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。
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Venturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。! B0 I* X# @5 D. V
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“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：
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- X: j! w7 {1 E6 a E; p( ], D“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”0 ~4 X' [8 \& Z( x2 d: ?
s: B1 w2 q/ ~( J6 S- g* _
底部预测不断出现9 q. ]+ }% |2 H3 y) {. f8 n
与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。
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0 m& B$ H( {# I8 L' k这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。
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/ {; \( b5 G# s+ b$ `& f链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。
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" l4 D5 J# P2 r- ?: m2 IBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode
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. M* C R/ D- R上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。( m& x- V: j/ J3 ]8 ?; ^* y
7 O7 c9 n' I! G7 Y% l' b# F2 M卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。# z0 {/ Y6 y- _$ T5 \8 l
3 e# r2 g0 h- ]; J% N交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。
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