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[lastpost] => 2785722 比特币5大信号决定本轮牛熊走向（转） 1764565940 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
贝莱德斥资1.25亿美元购买比特币为何令比特币交易员感到不安？（转）
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加密货币市场正面临压力。
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截至发稿时，比特币 (比特币) 在未能守住 94,000 美元上方后下跌 2.6%，至 89,596 美元左右的低点。与此同时，以太坊 [以太坊] 也出现类似走势，下跌 3.72% 至 3,038 美元。
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此次剧烈回调加剧了散户投资者的恐慌情绪。然而，在恐慌背后，机构巨头们却在增加投资，加倍下注。
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4 M5 K- n3 I% j0 v1 A贝莱德存入了比特币和以太坊; d/ g7 [% N" r
12月5日，贝莱德已存1.255亿美元BTC以及价值 250 万美元的以太坊到 Coinbase。+ _3 f% f E0 |$ j% K( K0 Y
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分析师泰德·皮洛斯警告说，这可能预示着机构抛售潮的到来，并可能加剧市场的不稳定性。
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' y, J* w+ @3 f4 g他说：
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“销量还会继续增长吗？”
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1 H4 Y7 J ]# v4 c因此，问题来了：目前的下跌是进一步抛售的信号，还是仅仅是精明的投资者在悄悄地为这轮由 ETF 驱动的周期设定了新的、更高的底线？
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0 ^( @; ^+ C% v) O h c5 [; ~此举为何引发担忧？0 A [! W2 I0 |; k. x8 M
比特币近期价格下跌，未能守住 94,000 美元的关口，这不可避免地将人们的注意力集中在大型机构的动向上，特别是贝莱德数百万美元的比特币存款。ETH到 Coinbase。
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% ]& s8 [5 a# l& ~0 C在加密货币市场中，向交易所的大额转账很快就会被视为看跌信号，主要是因为存在清算风险，因为这会增加可出售的供应量。2 o$ [5 `; L% j
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由于 ETF 资金流出和宏观经济的不确定性已经加剧了市场的紧张情绪，市场对此类波动反应强烈。& n& {' r. k! Y
, N- z9 M$ O" |, j" Z/ V' d" r: O因此，如果机构真的进行清算，新增供应可能会压低价格，过去的一些案例也加剧了这种担忧，这些案例表明，大额存款先于价格调整出现。# v) o5 N- Z% |2 }1 n0 \- H! i
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对于散户投资者而言，看到大型基金将资产转移到交易平台通常预示着即将出现问题。) a* {/ k Y4 |* v# G" ^' h
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然而，这种恐慌忽略了一个关键点：管理数十亿美元的 ETF 通常需要进行与即将出售无关的例行转移。
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# F# u1 Y+ h4 i' u e4 L还会有更多销售吗？3 F4 V' U8 j4 W6 _: M6 z
然而，仅凭定金并不能自动转化为后续销售。: V/ ?- r; { B: v& P! y z- G
2 j7 o. l3 a5 e: \3 `对于像贝莱德这样的 ETF 发行商而言，此类基金变动通常反映了日常运营需求、托管调整、赎回处理、再平衡或其他内部工作流程。
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4 ?; c0 I+ _& I& f" s* T贝莱德依靠 Coinbase Prime 进行机构托管和大宗交易，这体现了一种系统性的策略，而不是恐慌性抛售。
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C2 f9 M8 S, h, }5 p* C/ V通常情况下，这种大额转账是 ETF 创建和赎回过程中的常规步骤，旨在保持价格一致。7 v8 E2 d! w, ^; |! B
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即便如此，技术指标仍然表明短期前景看跌。7 z; C( h/ ?6 ] ~
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截至撰稿时，BTC 的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均收敛/发散指标 (MACD) 均低于其中性水平，证实了短期至中期内抛售动能的主导地位。
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来源：Trading View! Z$ E$ K5 ^$ j; X; b+ g
# \; s8 F+ i% i1 k' [ E" H% u要彻底扭转市场局面，从“熊市主导”转变为“牛市突破”，比特币必须成功突破并守住 98,000 美元的关键阻力位。( W, Q: Y- s3 H; K6 @8 j4 u
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在此之前，市场技术面依然低迷，容易受到波动影响。
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5 y/ C+ }9 Y/ e7 m最后想说的话
' H( O' K2 J {' u零售市场出现恐慌，但机构市场的行为表明，它们对市场波动的反应要审慎得多。% q) ~# j9 |" y; r$ [
技术指标短期内仍然对空头有利，比特币需要重新夺回 98,000 美元才能真正扭转走势。, d3 g1 z0 G- Z8 _4 X# n, u$ Q
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