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[lastpost] => 2775566 比特币的反弹失败：结构性转变还是暂时的挫折？（转） 1761095155 jackcool1011
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比特币价格近期暴跌，导致那些通过数字资产财务公司（DATCO）寻求投资的投资者损失了数十亿美元。DATCO 是将购买和持有比特币作为其资产负债表策略一部分的公司。* l7 l: Q& L8 [( ~; ]
2 S% Z/ p# Z+ N7 I- \0 W& W根据据 10x Research 称，该行业的衰退已使大约 170 亿美元的散户财富蒸发，其中 MicroStrategy 和 Metaplanet 等公司的股东受到的打击最为严重。
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对于希望间接利用比特币上涨的投资者来说，DATCO 成为了一个热门的切入点。这些公司通常以高于其比特币储备价值的溢价出售其股票，并利用所得收益增持更多加密货币。在牛市时期，当乐观情绪将估值推高至远超标的资产水平时，这种方法非常有效。但随着热情降温，比特币价格上涨势头减弱，这些溢价也随之暴跌，暴露出该行业的过度膨胀。! W# [; l/ G! ~' |$ n
+ D! _* f z" ^, t4 j6 b10x Research 估计，投资者通过这些溢价股票投资比特币，总共多支付了约 200 亿美元。此次抛售反映了更广泛的数字资产调整，MicroStrategy 的股价自 8 月以来下跌了 20% 以上，总部位于东京的 Metaplanet 同期下跌了 60% 以上。
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8 e) r0 e2 T+ Y# o+ o此次回调也重创了DATCO曾经备受推崇的市值与净资产价值（mNAV）比率——该指标反映了投资者的信心。MicroStrategy目前的交易价格约为其比特币持仓量的1.4倍，而Metaplanet自2024年采用其比特币资金管理模式以来首次跌破平价。在整个行业中，近五分之一的上市比特币资金管理公司的交易价格低于其净资产价值。
7 J, ^' Y2 `4 u尽管本月初比特币价格创下 126,000 美元的历史新高，但在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对天朝的关税威胁引发一波抛售浪潮后，比特币的回调加剧。* A. ^" `7 h/ H: x V
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- y& F3 Q* w4 X2 X1 z* j不过，一些分析师，例如 H100 Group AB 的 Brian Brookshire，认为这些下跌是比特币相关股票自然周期的一部分。他将 mNAV 比率描述为“波动且暂时的”，并认为此类调整不会损害该行业的长期基本面。( a5 d+ Y" n$ [% {* x5 h; w8 ^$ P- {
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然而，10x Research 的语气却更为冷静，称此次经济低迷是“金融炼金术的终结”——炒作和溢价驱动的增长让位于盈利现实。随着波动性降温和投机势头减弱，比特币资金管理公司现在面临着一个关键的考验：证明它们能够在没有无限上涨空间的幻觉的情况下蓬勃发展。
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