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[lastpost] => 2751764 为什么大多数交易者在 ETH/BTC 突破时错过最大波动(转) 1753368649 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币在恐慌与不确定性中保持强势:BTC 如何避免进一步亏损(转)
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比特币下跌 7% 表明宏观压力不断上升,市场正在重新调整。2 I; ] K0 c0 y" H5 y
随着避险资金流的增强,金价仍距历史高点仅 2%。
* q8 v8 h$ ?0 s$ Z宏观恐惧与不确定性(FUD)又回到了讨论中,但说实话,它从未真正消失过。反过来,比特币[BTC]再次成为众矢之的。, }0 T/ ?. Z1 _3 C/ w: L
* }* [! v* m3 L3 W0 A经过三天的深度去杠杆后,“10 万美元有风险吗?”的讨论又重新活跃起来。
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然而,BTC 并没有持续下跌太久。它强劲反弹 3%,再次测试 10.5 万美元大关,而这一走势看起来并非昙花一现。# S4 A6 t! Z' H/ M# A0 A
1 Z' I$ i( g( E( K据AMBCrypto称,交易员似乎正在从过去的市场震荡中吸取教训,将之前的恐惧转化为策略。如果真是这样,这是否意味着大众最终会变得更加聪明?0 C1 @( T8 d& @! [7 `. \
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FUD 情绪升温,BTC 表现强劲8 U6 h) E) k& _
别误会,这并非典型的关税引发的市场恐慌与不确定性。目前正在上演的是两个中东国家之间的全面冲突,这两个国家都是OPEC的重要成员国。2 m- j& o( o3 N1 u1 e) W
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过去两个月里,油价已上涨近40%,与伊朗相关的原油基准价格在过去24小时内飙升近5%。这一切都发生在距离联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下次决议不到一周之际。
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风险资产回应迅速地。' k; _: Q2 ]( @
4 Z* d. T- [8 [. y2 X/ v道琼斯指数下跌近 900 点,随着资本防御性地转向债券,10 年期美国国债收益率下跌近 3%,美元指数 (DXY) 下跌约 3%,反映出全球市场正在降低风险。3 R2 T3 h( [5 u8 ^! ~( o1 `
- ^6 H3 O+ B$ q黄金[XAU]也做出了回应,在避险需求激增的背景下,上涨近4%,至3,432美元。从技术面来看,黄金目前已近在咫尺,距离重返历史高点仅剩2%。2 C+ T9 g3 o X9 E6 _8 ]# z7 Z
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当然,有些人会指出比特币7%的跌幅,并称这证明“韧性”论调正在崩盘。考虑到围绕加息可能暂停的“预期”不断升温,这种担忧也合情合理。& L5 ]% l' p2 ^5 {) ~) X
# g, \5 l6 Q) B& x( t然而,市场定位却揭示了一个更加微妙的故事。它表明,这与其说是屈服,不如说是重新调整。
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- j6 s: k0 I3 e交易员越来越聪明; ^2 U- q2 W `, W( d7 c/ s
尤其, 机构流动已悄然再次转为看涨,不到一周的时间,就有近 13 亿美元流入现货比特币 ETF。
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7 r: \& W, G( g& d* s C这种流入起到了关键的减震器的作用,支持 BTC 从低点迅速回升 3%。
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但最大的不确定因素是什么?衍生品交易员。与以往不同,过去未平仓合约 (OI) 过热预示着拥挤,并会导致大幅清算,而这次期货市场保持着惊人的克制力。- q, S6 `. \$ y# g1 L; e
4 D+ H# w2 ~( J& ?& t ?& C举个例子:5月23日,BTC创下11.1万美元的历史新高,而持仓量(OI)则达到803.1亿美元的峰值。然而,这种泡沫最终引发了市场剧烈的崩盘,导致BTC回落至100,424美元。
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4 W9 i9 X. F' q5 D5 C当然,现在宣布确认反弹还为时过早,但这些迹象值得注意。4 ]( A+ j5 X1 q% P9 P& p
0 C& q- q$ G# K尽管在恐慌与不确定性(FUD)爆发前,比特币的看涨势头有所增强,但其持仓量并未达到峰值,即便市场一度逼近历史新高。这种克制表明,市场持仓结构正在日趋成熟。
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+ X; P9 F7 K9 ^ {- F. K+ y与……相比以太坊[ETH],BTC参与者此次采取了更为谨慎的态度。7 `4 \; m. K6 l. J& X F( U G' K
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通过控制杠杆,他们大大降低了连锁清算事件的风险,有可能挽救数百万美元的损失。
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. ~) k1 f! J& ], H" b: f& ~+ y }加上机构资金流入的强劲吸收,金价再次跌破 10 万美元的可能性现在看来越来越小。
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