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[lastpost] => 2798166 币安人生这个币还是很能涨的啊 1768722515 rainwang
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& f+ Z; F2 o$ h1 u0 ~ 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，! m; k* f6 f% q4 J5 _
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
6 y2 F" f) ~, m e- \ l' Y+ e: k
9 u+ G; y6 ~, Q# @- q9 ]4 ?逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政5 E+ m! a1 Z1 e" C/ b1 W
6 H |4 Y: s* L) s4 @! z策的确定性。& d9 ~) W9 h7 i2 N7 E+ Y3 T
- q2 o. x. y( a- B1 B% B 中信证券主要观点如下：# V9 y& k# m+ I9 i5 F3 `# O9 g( w
Z0 p6 A m! T
加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。 i+ n6 i4 l6 [& U
" Z0 E! c7 w- N2 k. E. p 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。
' m S2 M. r; c- s1 z! I
, z+ s4 {. t* o# {" _# e 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。6 t+ Y8 ^& s6 F( h- l. ]) W& z
1 V# K0 w2 _ `: B4 l9 H* H: v7 W) l
2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现% N$ }2 v/ H( w( j
5 X% k6 R! X& T不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
+ t5 k! F% T# l/ t# ^, c6 R) z8 f4 Z5 ?: O0 m' {: o6 W, [
加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。
; l3 V( M4 z3 t
! H# b- ^% J. r: R: b6 _" }( q4 B 加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。+ a2 h0 q% q9 `9 S8 `
& {% J% d/ j' q' ~- L# f; |9 ~ 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。
% Q1 Y$ x3 N/ ?) M% X+ M
- T. O4 s& N3 k 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性
% Z! L7 G- ?) m9 N! t4 @1 o3 S4 T3 _5 n& k2 r5 p
共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。. a- Y4 q% h* H( D& I6 z2 R
4 @8 u+ _! C7 a9 r7 _! w5 S( L 长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
8 J: M! j1 y" N' [6 f
* d- G" {# v. H; a- L& [ 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。, {, l7 E8 _; `$ C
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
( @6 r+ T7 C4 H) f; ~5 F& W& D+ ]: f7 r
策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
3 G! R5 |; O$ Q6 J# |# m& {4 p
/ Y/ V' B$ g" a$ M* N# k 风险因素：, A9 {* o# O' T7 P: f
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特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。& P% W6 Z) J7 m6 b [
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