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[lastpost] => 2796859 通过 Polymarket 对预测市场的深度洞察及观点定价的本质（转） 1768352302 22301
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比特币最近的清算活动反映了过去的市场崩溃，例如FTX和Covid-19。* V6 t' P( a6 s( k7 n' t$ j, c
尽管市场波动挥之不去，但机构购买利息仍表明潜在的恢复。. W0 D4 p5 s/ I7 v7 `4 H
比特币的[BTC]最近的价格下跌使冲击波在市场上引发了冲击波，这引发了几个月来最大的长位置清算。# ?) _* k2 g4 X6 K2 Z4 D) n
& q7 f3 _' U( F6 F" }8 b随着BTC跌落，一直担任看涨立场的商人迅速被迫淘汰，造成了巨大的损失。
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& d9 m5 S+ o) u T7 ~+ @这种戏剧性的抛售与以前的市场崩溃相比具有令人毛骨悚然的比较，因此许多人想知道是否会出现类似的低迷。2 y( Y' {5 C* Y B ^; o
8 G9 G+ `+ b3 K% w" d* p5 b+ s市场重置运动？/ _ A4 g9 y' V v
最新数据显示自2023年9月以来，该比特币长清算的水平已经达到了看不见的水平。
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最新的清算量超过1.8亿美元，这一数字强调了交易者在突然下降之前处于看涨位置的极端信心。
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/ ]& ?+ S4 J8 Q6 y突然的价格下降到约95.3万美元，引发了一系列强迫抛售的级联，迅速清除了长期杠杆率。0 |, a+ J! N* C; [5 q. H; c3 y
' M) F, `/ S8 R# |2 N市场对向上移动的高期望很快被粉碎，引发了严重的清算事件。
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* P0 G0 {1 F4 s% _6 W- y# I1月下旬和2月初的陡峭清算峰值指出了过多的杠杆作用。这使杠杆贸易商措手不及，导致了最近历史上最重要的市场清洗之一。; b3 y$ V$ q' ~ M$ [7 U+ B0 \! ]
) \" j* t5 X: H! l6 K0 M- H比特币：价格下跌的原因和影响
( E& N# f0 m5 [2 A) T7 k: D突然的BTC价格下跌可以追溯到几个关键因素。过度驾驶职位是主要的驾驶员，交易者使用高杠杆被迫随着BTC的降低而被迫出售，从而引发了清算级联。
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- N" Z: p" t6 f8 N; [宏观经济的不确定性，包括对货币政策或新法规的担忧，也使投资者震惊，并为抛售做出了贡献。
2 P! ^1 G* z: Z: y( a% V( g5 F; U* r2 [7 b% v
这种价格下跌的影响很大。清算事件消除了许多过度使用交易者，重置了市场的杠杆作用。
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3 q) {7 Z+ G) F! s# j$ a它还提高了波动性，导致价格急剧波动。但是，随着杠杆率过多，市场现在可能处于更稳定，有机恢复的状态。6 L0 E& t9 N. t" P
: \5 F- J+ s- K- [ C! q4 [与类似的猛mm撞崩溃的比较
8 W( ^) A5 d% x* Y* L7 B7 Q最近的清算活动显示与过去的市场崩溃相似。$ J5 ^5 l2 F# X9 c
7 B* ^' k' \, F: Q比特币：重置期望 Z! |. n2 W# w j1 E; G i& B
Coinbase Premium Gap揭示了重大的购买利息之后比特币的蘸至$ 92K- $ 95K范围。
8 ^1 r! A. B, Z0 i; B: n2 U. d% l: ~! [/ F# g, b! g: G
正溢价表明，机构投资者正在介入以吸收流动性，利用价格下跌以在较低水平的情况下累积BTC。
* h4 ^( n, g% b8 X: E% n
6 ]# ]1 V; h- Z) Q/ g3 y# E( a: o尽管市场疲软较大，但这表明了强烈的机构需求。/ ~0 R" t ~9 w$ B& t5 B
! x: @ L8 @2 u3 ^0 v9 B5 \但是，MVRV动量指标具有仍然是负面的自今年年初以来，暗示许多投资者仍在水下。
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从历史上看，负面的MVRV表明，如果信心不尽快恢复，则延长了整合或进一步的缺点。
: C* {/ l. a' z$ i* I/ K# R% h7 U/ \& z# P! _, W
该清算事件具有重置市场情绪，尽管已清除了过度的杠杆作用，但市场仍然波动。, @' m5 s4 J8 j8 M/ L1 T; D6 X
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