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[lastpost] => 2784858 分析师警告——比特币不太可能在2025年出现“圣诞行情”(转) 1768646627 g9527
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。3 F D) {3 o3 `+ R! e
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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' o q4 v+ B2 {9 b% R% j2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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- U0 u2 X5 }7 E当前持仓成本:
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4 n' j- f& p( u% Z3 ~机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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, v& L4 L& q' Q8 R. B6 k x2 h微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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( U( _8 S! g1 P& M% lETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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比特币价值回归:" R; Z+ e5 {4 l; L& G* ]
$ s+ ^8 s9 k% M: m2 ]" f( X& z市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。3 b3 O$ c, u! }' a% N
, N& p+ ~# E6 q, z t; w随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。! z, v9 N9 A- e) w3 F
- K# |% P% V5 B8 G) f+ y7 [加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况% x% x/ D" k$ K: ?) _5 `# d( h
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ETH:
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) v7 j) U' ]6 a. B5 e0 j虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。: s- D( c6 K# J
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。2 j$ ?% Y; r: _6 w9 Z
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BTC:
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。# U, S! u" N) v* \
7 Q# R% J3 O! u. u- J2 f9 ], D( J' jSOL与XRP:+ O$ t1 g4 e0 I! F( Y2 N: S
; h, d1 y u* R; A* D; _+ @SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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/ T6 x; ?% W& g5 X* BXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。) s) Z/ `# ^! P8 [' q% b/ Z1 H
: v# G+ h. m a; i$ l5 `% J% p4 R其他热点项目:; ~! G1 D+ f) _7 ~, |
9 M$ O' n7 @' A R$ g0 U& m7 G涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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+ m; I7 `- O" p! l" m& }/ Z; f新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望
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! A, Y8 j0 P+ Y1 y& a! u随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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