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[lastpost] => 2773209 以太坊是暴涨了10多个点啊重回4000美元 1760337650 jackcool1011
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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' V' n; p/ R4 m7 V$ L% Y过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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. ]+ C+ l. [; q+ B5 jPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。' d% K3 j' r3 N- Z. b* s/ D
1 l( |3 f* C e, e5 I/ zCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。9 C6 M5 I4 C5 A& |% ^' y% Z
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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2 n$ N" s4 e6 y( r* e0 Q7 f当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;6 n. P+ F% v" `; Q
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;$ D6 U* s; Z- u/ U. I h5 S
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。7 {# Z6 Y! H+ Q1 k* s
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比特币价值回归:' d) {2 q) R+ \
! D# C" T) A" g市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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3 ^0 T: T4 H/ j( ]% e随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。/ S! b: H- g' j8 ~' A
; h& H9 `/ P3 x( {加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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ETH:
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" J! h# c+ W5 |: E Q虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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. F; n+ Y* F8 O" a+ R$ N机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。* o) l* {6 M2 v. T
% Y: I! C6 r# i6 h如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。4 {- q% d3 [8 Q7 L
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SOL与XRP:
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3 ]7 t" y+ ^( J: O5 ~4 O: S* K* ~ x$ ]SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。3 [/ O! ?- M# j& x& U+ |( N
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
9 d; f8 ~( a( X2 u5 p' E/ L- D, |2 z& |) T, _
其他热点项目:: D# _) T/ m0 ^0 L$ _
' _7 [& X4 A. p- w/ {涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。. |" S8 L0 ?, O" l Y
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。0 R0 {# D$ i- {" @( }6 J `4 u
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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3 F- @( z3 r% A1 l% T* T7 SAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。4 ]7 S! G3 C) P' v% O1 e2 e
" C% I' O, r7 V- m5 S0 ~. N蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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) x |0 p2 p6 U9 E市场展望/ W& T0 X! \8 i. l
' v% x t3 H ?" q+ V/ e随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。& s. L3 B4 x, U9 Y( ^. @
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